What predicts surgical internship performance?

Background Variables associated with postgraduate year 1 (PGY-l) performance in surgical training have not been fully defined. Methods Mean composite PGY-l evaluation scores were calculated from responses to questionnaires mailed to surgical program directors of 87 surgical graduates from 1997 to 2001. We analyzed evaluation scores for associations with sex, surgical specialty choice, United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) step 1 and step 2 scores, Alpha Omega Alpha (AOA) election, and third-year clerkships' grade point average (GPA). Results There were significant first-order associations between PGY-l performance evaluation score and each of USMLE step 2 score and GPA. In a multiple linear regression model that included sex, surgical specialty choice, USMLE step l and step 2 scores, AOA, and GPA, USMLE step 2 score was the only significant predictor of PGY-l performance. Conclusions Multiinstitutional studies are warranted to determine the predictive value of USMLE step 2 scores in residency performance beyond PGY-l and to identify other predictors of surgical PGY-l performance.