Validation of a risk prediction model for COVID-19: the PERIL prospective cohort study

Shahd A. Mohammedain, Saif Badran, Abdel Naser Y. Elzouki, Halla Salim, Ayesha Chalaby, M. Y.A. Siddiqui, Yehia Y. Hussein, Hanan Abdul Rahim, Lukman Thalib, Mohammed Fasihul Alam, Daoud Al-Badriyeh, Sumaya Al-Maadeed, Suhail A.R. Doi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Aim: This study aims to perform an external validation of a recently developed prognostic model for early prediction of the risk of progression to severe COVID-19. Patients & methods/materials: Patients were recruited at their initial diagnosis at two facilities within Hamad Medical Corporation in Qatar. 356 adults were included for analysis. Predictors for progression of COVID-19 were all measured at disease onset and first contact with the health system. Results: The C statistic was 83% (95% CI: 78%–87%) and the calibration plot showed that the model was well-calibrated. Conclusion: The published prognostic model for the progression of COVID-19 infection showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration and the model is easy to apply in clinical practice.d

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)991-999
Number of pages9
JournalFuture Virology
Issue number15
StatePublished - Oct 1 2023


  • COVID-19
  • disease severity
  • prognosis
  • risk prediction


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