Validation of a risk prediction model for COVID-19: the PERIL prospective cohort study

Shahd A. Mohammedain; Saif Badran; Abdel Naser Y. Elzouki; Halla Salim; Ayesha Chalaby; M. Y.A. Siddiqui; Yehia Y. Hussein; Hanan Abdul Rahim; Lukman Thalib; Mohammed Fasihul Alam; Daoud Al-Badriyeh; Sumaya Al-Maadeed; Suhail A.R. Doi

doi:10.2217/fvl-2023-0036

Validation of a risk prediction model for COVID-19: the PERIL prospective cohort study

Shahd A. Mohammedain, Saif Badran, Abdel Naser Y. Elzouki, Halla Salim, Ayesha Chalaby, M. Y.A. Siddiqui, Yehia Y. Hussein, Hanan Abdul Rahim, Lukman Thalib, Mohammed Fasihul Alam, Daoud Al-Badriyeh, Sumaya Al-Maadeed, Suhail A.R. Doi

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Aim: This study aims to perform an external validation of a recently developed prognostic model for early prediction of the risk of progression to severe COVID-19. Patients & methods/materials: Patients were recruited at their initial diagnosis at two facilities within Hamad Medical Corporation in Qatar. 356 adults were included for analysis. Predictors for progression of COVID-19 were all measured at disease onset and first contact with the health system. Results: The C statistic was 83% (95% CI: 78%–87%) and the calibration plot showed that the model was well-calibrated. Conclusion: The published prognostic model for the progression of COVID-19 infection showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration and the model is easy to apply in clinical practice.d

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	991-999
Number of pages	9
Journal	Future Virology
Volume	18
Issue number	15
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2217/fvl-2023-0036
State	Published - Oct 1 2023

Keywords

COVID-19
disease severity
prognosis
risk prediction

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10.2217/fvl-2023-0036

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title = "Validation of a risk prediction model for COVID-19: the PERIL prospective cohort study",

abstract = "Aim: This study aims to perform an external validation of a recently developed prognostic model for early prediction of the risk of progression to severe COVID-19. Patients & methods/materials: Patients were recruited at their initial diagnosis at two facilities within Hamad Medical Corporation in Qatar. 356 adults were included for analysis. Predictors for progression of COVID-19 were all measured at disease onset and first contact with the health system. Results: The C statistic was 83% (95% CI: 78%–87%) and the calibration plot showed that the model was well-calibrated. Conclusion: The published prognostic model for the progression of COVID-19 infection showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration and the model is easy to apply in clinical practice.d",

keywords = "COVID-19, disease severity, prognosis, risk prediction",

author = "Mohammedain, {Shahd A.} and Saif Badran and Elzouki, {Abdel Naser Y.} and Halla Salim and Ayesha Chalaby and Siddiqui, {M. Y.A.} and Hussein, {Yehia Y.} and Rahim, {Hanan Abdul} and Lukman Thalib and Alam, {Mohammed Fasihul} and Daoud Al-Badriyeh and Sumaya Al-Maadeed and Doi, {Suhail A.R.}",

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doi = "10.2217/fvl-2023-0036",

language = "English",

volume = "18",

pages = "991--999",

journal = "Future Virology",

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T1 - Validation of a risk prediction model for COVID-19

T2 - the PERIL prospective cohort study

AU - Mohammedain, Shahd A.

AU - Badran, Saif

AU - Elzouki, Abdel Naser Y.

AU - Salim, Halla

AU - Chalaby, Ayesha

AU - Siddiqui, M. Y.A.

AU - Hussein, Yehia Y.

AU - Rahim, Hanan Abdul

AU - Thalib, Lukman

AU - Alam, Mohammed Fasihul

AU - Al-Badriyeh, Daoud

AU - Al-Maadeed, Sumaya

AU - Doi, Suhail A.R.

PY - 2023/10/1

Y1 - 2023/10/1

N2 - Aim: This study aims to perform an external validation of a recently developed prognostic model for early prediction of the risk of progression to severe COVID-19. Patients & methods/materials: Patients were recruited at their initial diagnosis at two facilities within Hamad Medical Corporation in Qatar. 356 adults were included for analysis. Predictors for progression of COVID-19 were all measured at disease onset and first contact with the health system. Results: The C statistic was 83% (95% CI: 78%–87%) and the calibration plot showed that the model was well-calibrated. Conclusion: The published prognostic model for the progression of COVID-19 infection showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration and the model is easy to apply in clinical practice.d

AB - Aim: This study aims to perform an external validation of a recently developed prognostic model for early prediction of the risk of progression to severe COVID-19. Patients & methods/materials: Patients were recruited at their initial diagnosis at two facilities within Hamad Medical Corporation in Qatar. 356 adults were included for analysis. Predictors for progression of COVID-19 were all measured at disease onset and first contact with the health system. Results: The C statistic was 83% (95% CI: 78%–87%) and the calibration plot showed that the model was well-calibrated. Conclusion: The published prognostic model for the progression of COVID-19 infection showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration and the model is easy to apply in clinical practice.d

KW - COVID-19

KW - disease severity

KW - prognosis

KW - risk prediction

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JO - Future Virology

JF - Future Virology

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ER -

Validation of a risk prediction model for COVID-19: the PERIL prospective cohort study

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Keywords

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