Unlocking the adaptive advantage: correlation and machine learning classification to identify optimal online adaptive stereotactic partial breast candidates

Objective. Online adaptive radiotherapy (OART) is a promising technique for delivering stereotactic accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI), as lumpectomy cavities vary in location and size between simulation and treatment. However, OART is resource-intensive, increasing planning and treatment times and decreasing machine throughput compared to the standard of care (SOC). Thus, it is pertinent to identify high-yield OART candidates to best allocate resources. Approach. Reference plans (plans based on simulation anatomy), SOC plans (reference plans recalculated onto daily anatomy), and daily adaptive plans were analyzed for 31 sequential APBI targets, resulting in the analysis of 333 treatment plans. Spearman correlations between 22 reference plan metrics and 10 adaptive benefits, defined as the difference between mean SOC and delivered metrics, were analyzed to select a univariate predictor of OART benefit. A multivariate logistic regression model was then trained to stratify high- and low-benefit candidates. Main results. Adaptively delivered plans showed dosimetric benefit as compared to SOC plans for most plan metrics, although the degree of adaptive benefit varied per patient. The univariate model showed high likelihood for dosimetric adaptive benefit when the reference plan ipsilateral breast V15Gy exceeds 23.5%. Recursive feature elimination identified 5 metrics that predict high-dosimetric-benefit adaptive patients. Using leave-one-out cross validation, the univariate and multivariate models classified targets with 74.2% and 83.9% accuracy, resulting in improvement in per-fraction adaptive benefit between targets identified as high- and low-yield for 7/10 and 8/10 plan metrics, respectively. Significance. This retrospective, exploratory study demonstrated that dosimetric benefit can be predicted using only ipsilateral breast V15Gy on the reference treatment plan, allowing for a simple, interpretable model. Using multivariate logistic regression for adaptive benefit prediction led to increased accuracy at the cost of a more complicated model. This work presents a methodology for clinics wishing to triage OART resource allocation.