The Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program bariatric surgical risk/benefit calculator: 30-day risk

Arielle Grieco, Kristopher M. Huffman, Mark E. Cohen, Bruce L. Hall, John M. Morton, Clifford Y. Ko

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background: There is increasing demand for data-driven tools that provide accurate and clearly communicated patient-specific information. These can aid discussions between practitioners and patients, promote shared decision-making, and enhance informed consent. The American College of Surgeons Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program (MBSAQIP) sought to create a risk calculator for adult patients considering primary metabolic and bariatric surgery, with multiple prediction features: (1) 30-day risk; (2) 1-year body mass index projections; and (3) 1-year co-morbidity remission. Objectives: To evaluate the 30-day risk estimation feature of this tool. Setting: Not-for-profit organization, international bariatric surgery clinical data registry. Methods: MBSAQIP data across 5.5 years, 925 hospitals, and 775,291 cases were used to develop the 30-day risk feature. Logistic regression models were employed to estimate postoperative risks for 9 outcomes across 4 procedures: laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy, laparoscopic adjustable gastric band, and biliopancreatic diversion with duodenal switch. Results: The tool showed good discrimination for mortality and surgical site infection models (c-statistics,.80 and.70, respectively), and was slightly less accurate for the 7 other complications (.62–.69). Graphical representations showed excellent calibration for all 9 outcomes. Conclusions: Overall, the 30-day risk models were accurate and well calibrated, with acceptable discrimination. The MBSAQIP bariatric surgical risk/benefit calculator is publicly available, with the intent to be integrated into healthcare practice to guide bariatric surgical decision-making and care planning, and to enhance communication between patients and their surgical care team.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1117-1124
Number of pages8
JournalSurgery for Obesity and Related Diseases
Volume17
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2021

Keywords

  • Bariatric surgery
  • Calculator
  • Informed consent
  • Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program
  • Risk prediction
  • Shared decision-making

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