The Chinese bond market: Risk, return, and opportunities

After reviewing the unique characteristics of the Chinese bond market, the authors investigate the factors that determine the returns and risks of Chinese bonds. Bond returns are found to be highly predictable and the predictability is largely driven by various institutional characteristics and China's unique monetary policy: the Chinese Central Bank controls the whole term structure of deposit rates and leading rates. The authors also show that a U.S. investor can gain potentially sizable economic benefits by investing in the Chinese bond market for diversification, given the market's high returns and low correlation with the U.S. bond market.