Temporal trends of COVID-19 mortality and hospitalisation rates: An observational cohort study from the US Department of Veterans Affairs

Miao Cai, Benjamin Bowe, Yan Xie, Ziyad Al-Aly

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

Objectives To investigate the temporal trends of 30-day mortality and hospitalisation in US Veterans with COVID-19 and 30-day mortality in hospitalised veterans with COVID-19 and to decompose the contribution of changes in the underlying characteristics of affected populations to these temporal changes. Design Observational cohort study. Setting US Department of Veterans Affairs. Participants 49 238 US veterans with a positive COVID-19 test between 20 March 2020 and 19 September 2020; and 9428 US veterans hospitalised with a positive COVID-19 test during the same period. Outcome measures 30-day mortality rate and hospitalisation rate. Results Between 20 March 2020 and 19 September 2020 and in COVID-19 positive individuals, 30-day mortality rate dropped by 9.2% from 13.6% to 4.4%; hospitalisation rate dropped by 16.8% from 33.8% to 17.0%. In hospitalised COVID-19 individuals, 30-day mortality rate dropped by 12.7% from 23.5% to 10.8%. Among COVID-19 positive individuals, decomposition analyses suggested that changes in demographic, health and contextual characteristics, COVID-19 testing capacity, and hospital occupancy rates accounted for 40.2% and 33.3% of the decline in 30-day mortality and hospitalisation, respectively. Changes in the underlying characteristics of hospitalised COVID-19 individuals accounted for 29.9% of the decline in 30-day mortality. Conclusion Between March and September 2020, changes in demographic and health characteristics of people infected with COVID-19 contributed measurably to the substantial decline in 30-day mortality and hospitalisation.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere047369
JournalBMJ Open
Volume11
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 16 2021

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • epidemiology
  • general medicine (see internal medicine)

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Temporal trends of COVID-19 mortality and hospitalisation rates: An observational cohort study from the US Department of Veterans Affairs'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this