Survival analysis and risk factors for mortality in transplantation and staged surgery for hypoplastic left heart syndrome

OBJECTIVES: We compared survival in treatment strategies and determined risk factors for one-year mortality for hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS) using intention-to-treat analysis. BACKGROUND: Staged revision of the native heart and transplantation as treatments for HLHS have been compared in treatment-received analyses, which can bias results. METHODS: Data on 231 infants with HLHS, born between 1989 and 1994 and intended for surgery, were collected from four pediatric cardiac surgical centers. Status at last contact for survival analysis and mortality at one year for risk factor analysis were the outcome measures. RESULTS: Survival curves showed improved survival for patients intended for transplantation over patients intended for staged surgery. One-year survival was 61% for transplantation and 42% for staged surgery (p < 0.01); five-year survival was 55% and 38%, respectively (p < 0.01). Survival curves adjusted for preoperative differences were also significantly different (p < 0.001). Waiting-list mortality accounted for 63% of first-year deaths in the transplantation group. Mortality with stage 1 surgery accounted for 86% of that strategy's first-year mortality. Birth weight <3 kg (odds ratio [OR] 2.4), highest creatinine ≥2 mg/dL (OR 4.7), restrictive atrial septal defect (OR 2.7) and, in staged surgery, atresia of one (OR 4.2) or both (OR 11.0) left-sided valves produced a higher risk for one-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Transplantation produced significantly higher survival at all ages up to seven years. Patients with atresia of one or both valves do poorly in staged surgery and have significantly higher survival with transplantation. This information may be useful in directing patients to the better strategy for them. (C) 2000 by the American College of Cardiology.