Selected chronic disease risk factors in Missouri: 10-year trends and predictions for the year 2000

Introduction: A study was undertaken to determine the prevalence rates of three chronic disease risk factors among adult Missourians from 1986 to 1995, to predict rates, and to compare them with national and Missouri's goals for the year 2000. Methods: Using data from Missouri Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Surveys (BRFSS) 1986-1995, prevalence rates of smoking, physical inactivity, and obesity were calculated across age, gender, race, and educational levels. Linear regression was used to predict rates for year 2000, for the adults of Missouri as a whole and for particular subgroups. Results: There was a 0.9% annual decrease in smoking prevalence and a 4.6 % annual increase in obesity over the 10 years, controlling for age and gender. The trend in rates of physical inactivity was nonsignificant. Continuation of these rates will give smoking rates of 23.6%, obesity rates of 35.5%, and sedentary rates of 36.3% by the year 2000. Those with less than a high school education had higher rates for each of the risk factors. Conclusions: This rate of decrease in rates of cigarette smoking is not sufficient to enable the year 2000 goal to be reached until year 2040, and the rates of obesity and sedentary lifestyle are increasing. The BRFSS, which has now been implemented in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, is a useful tool for monitoting progress towards health behavior targets.