TY - JOUR
T1 - Risk Prediction Models for Head and Neck Cancer in the US Population from the INHANCE Consortium
AU - Lee, Yuan Chin Amy
AU - Al-Temimi, Mohammed
AU - Ying, Jian
AU - Muscat, Joshua
AU - Olshan, Andrew F.
AU - Zevallos, Jose P.
AU - Winn, Deborah M.
AU - Li, Guojun
AU - Sturgis, Erich M.
AU - Morgenstern, Hal
AU - Zhang, Zuo Feng
AU - Smith, Elaine
AU - Kelsey, Karl
AU - McClean, Michael
AU - Vaughan, Thomas L.
AU - Lazarus, Philip
AU - Chen, Chu
AU - Schwartz, Stephen M.
AU - Gillison, Maura
AU - Schantz, Stimson
AU - Yu, Guo Pei
AU - D'Souza, Gypsyamber
AU - Gross, Neil
AU - Monroe, Marcus
AU - Kim, Jaewhan
AU - Boffetta, Paolo
AU - Hashibe, Mia
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: [email protected].
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - Head and neck cancer (HNC) risk prediction models based on risk factor profiles have not yet been developed. We took advantage of the large database of the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium, including 14 US studies from 1981-2010, to develop HNC risk prediction models. Seventy percent of the data were used to develop the risk prediction models; the remaining 30 were used to validate the models. We used competing-risk models to calculate absolute risks. The predictors included age, sex, education, race/ethnicity, alcohol drinking intensity, cigarette smoking duration and intensity, and/or family history of HNC. The 20-year absolute risk of HNC was 7.61 for a 60-year-old woman who smoked more than 20 cigarettes per day for over 20 years, consumed 3 or more alcoholic drinks per day, was a high school graduate, had a family history of HNC, and was non-Hispanic white. The 20-year risk for men with a similar profile was 6.85. The absolute risks of oropharyngeal and hypopharyngeal cancers were generally lower than those of oral cavity and laryngeal cancers. Statistics for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.70 or higher, except for oropharyngeal cancer in men. This HNC risk prediction model may be useful in promoting healthier behaviors such as smoking cessation or in aiding persons with a family history of HNC to evaluate their risks.
AB - Head and neck cancer (HNC) risk prediction models based on risk factor profiles have not yet been developed. We took advantage of the large database of the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium, including 14 US studies from 1981-2010, to develop HNC risk prediction models. Seventy percent of the data were used to develop the risk prediction models; the remaining 30 were used to validate the models. We used competing-risk models to calculate absolute risks. The predictors included age, sex, education, race/ethnicity, alcohol drinking intensity, cigarette smoking duration and intensity, and/or family history of HNC. The 20-year absolute risk of HNC was 7.61 for a 60-year-old woman who smoked more than 20 cigarettes per day for over 20 years, consumed 3 or more alcoholic drinks per day, was a high school graduate, had a family history of HNC, and was non-Hispanic white. The 20-year risk for men with a similar profile was 6.85. The absolute risks of oropharyngeal and hypopharyngeal cancers were generally lower than those of oral cavity and laryngeal cancers. Statistics for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.70 or higher, except for oropharyngeal cancer in men. This HNC risk prediction model may be useful in promoting healthier behaviors such as smoking cessation or in aiding persons with a family history of HNC to evaluate their risks.
KW - absolute risk
KW - head and neck cancer
KW - hypopharyngeal cancer
KW - laryngeal cancer
KW - oral cavity cancer
KW - oropharyngeal cancer
KW - risk prediction
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85086052491&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/aje/kwz259
DO - 10.1093/aje/kwz259
M3 - Article
C2 - 31781743
AN - SCOPUS:85086052491
SN - 0002-9262
VL - 189
SP - 330
EP - 342
JO - American journal of epidemiology
JF - American journal of epidemiology
IS - 4
ER -