Rising seas, rising concerns: how climate change vulnerability shapes opinions towards policy

Public opinion towards human-induced climate change is polarized along partisan lines. Indeed, scholars debate whether direct experiences with the consequences of climate change result in durable effects on opinions or behaviors. Our analysis of hundreds of thousands of survey respondents and nearly 30,000 precinct-level voting returns challenges this emerging consensus for one kind of climate change outcome: rising sea levels. We find that persistent vulnerability to rising sea levels is associated with opinions and behaviors about global warming. Coastal residents affected by sea-level rise are more likely to support climate mitigation policy. This association is strongest among those firmly attached to their communities, as opposed to those with the most to lose financially. We speculate that sea-level rise is exceptionally salient in the minds of those affected as an ever-present reminder of the inevitable toll of climate change.