Reverse epidemiology of blood pressure in peritoneal dialysis associated with dynamic deterioration of left ventricular function

♦ Background: Reverse epidemiology of blood pressure (BP) in end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) is manifested as higher mortality at lower blood pressure. We hypothesize that this phenomenon is partially mediated by deterioration of cardiac structure andfunction. ♦ Methods: Seventy-seven prevalent ESKD patients starting renal replacement therapy on peritoneal dialysis (PD) from 2007 to 2012 were evaluated for the primary outcome of all-cause mortality. Longitudinal data were obtained from 1,930 patient-encounters including monthly clinic BP and serial echocardiograms. Generalized linear mixed models using data from the last observation moving backward, and time-to-event analysis using time-varying Cox-survival models to estimate mortality risk at different blood pressure categories were applied. ♦ Results: There were 39 males (50.6%). Mean age was 51 years (standard deviation [SD] = 15). During follow-up, 20 patients (25%) died. As compared to systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 140 – 159 mmHg, unadjusted risk of mortality was 7.3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5 – 35.7, p = 0.008) at level < 120 mmHg. Systolic BP trended down to an average of 117 mmHg prior to death in non-survivors as compared to 141 mmHg in survivors (p < 0.05). In non-survivors, percentage with concentric left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) decreased by 20% at the expense of a 20% reciprocal increase in eccentric hypertrophy associated with a 30% increase in percentage with low ejection fraction (EF) (<50%). After adjusting for EF, risk of mortality at SBP <120 mmHg attenuated to 3.4 (95% CI: 0.7 – 17.7, p = 0.14). ♦ Conclusion: We conclude that higher mortality associated with lower BP may be mediated in part by worsening heart function in ESKD patients receiving PD.