Predictors of disease progression in pediatric dilated cardiomyopathy

Kimberly M. Molina, Peter Shrader, Steven D. Colan, Seema Mital, Renee Margossian, Lynn A. Sleeper, Girish Shirali, Piers Barker, Charles E. Canter, Karen Altmann, Elizabeth Radojewski, Elif Seda Selamet Tierney, Jack Rychik, Lloyd Y. Tani

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

56 Scopus citations


Background.Despite medical advances, children with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) remain at high risk of death or need for cardiac transplantation. We sought to identify predictors of disease progression in pediatric DCM. Methods and Results.The Pediatric Heart Network evaluated chronic DCM patients with prospective echocardiographic and clinical data collection during an 18-month follow-up. Inclusion criteria were age <22 years and DCM disease duration >2 months. Patients requiring intravenous inotropic/mechanical support or listed status 1A/1B for transplant were excluded. Disease progression was defined as an increase in transplant listing status, hospitalization for heart failure, intravenous inotropes, mechanical support, or death. Predictors of disease progression were identified using Cox proportional hazards modeling and classification and regression tree analysis. Of the 127 patients, 28 (22%) had disease progression during the 18-month follow-up. Multivariable analysis identified older age at diagnosis (hazard ratio=1.14 per year; P<0.001), larger left ventricular (LV) end-diastolic M-mode dimension z-score (hazard ratio=1.49; P<0.001), and lower septal peak systolic tissue Doppler velocity z-score (hazard ratio=0.81; P=0.01) as independent predictors of disease progression. Classification and regression tree analysis stratified patients at risk of disease progression with 89% sensitivity and 94% specificity based on LV end-diastolic M-mode dimension z-score .7.7, LV ejection fraction <39%, LV inflow propagation velocity (color M-mode) z-score <.0.28, and age at diagnosis .8.5 months. Conclusions.In children with chronic stable DCM, a combination of diagnosis after late infancy and echocardiographic parameters of larger LV size and systolic and diastolic function predicted disease progression.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1214-1222
Number of pages9
JournalCirculation: Heart Failure
Issue number6
StatePublished - Nov 2013


  • Cardiomyopathies
  • Heart transplantation
  • Pediatrics


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