Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

GBD 2020 Alcohol Collaborators; Dana Bryazka; Marissa B. Reitsma; Max G. Griswold; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Cristiana Abbafati; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Amir Abdoli; Mohammad Abdollahi; Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah; E. S. Abhilash; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Juan Manuel Acuna; Giovanni Addolorato; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Kishor Adhikari; Sangeet Adhikari; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saira Afzal; Wubetu Yimam Agegnehu; Manik Aggarwal; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Araz Ramazan Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Md Zakiul Alam; Dejene Tsegaye Alem; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Yousef Alimohamadi; Atiyeh Alizadeh; Kasim Allel; Jordi Alonso; Saba Alvand; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Firehiwot Amare; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Sohrab Amiri; Robert Ancuceanu; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Jalal Arabloo; Muhammad Arshad; Anton A. Artamonov; Zahra Aryan; Malke Asaad; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Thomas Astell-Burt; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Prince Atorkey; Alok Atreya; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Olatunde O. Ayinde; Jose L. Ayuso-Mateos; Sina Azadnajafabad; Melkalem Mamuye Azanaw; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Ashish D. Badiye; Nasser Bagheri; Sara Bagherieh; Mohan Bairwa; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Ravleen Kaur Bakshi; Awraris Hailu Balchut Bilchut; T. W. Bärnighausen; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Pritish Baskaran; Luis Belo; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Bagas Suryo Bintoro; Elena A.Elena Blokhina; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Archith Boloor; Cristina Bosetti; Dejana Braithwaite; Hermann Brenner; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Andre R. Brunoni; Zahid A. Butt; Chao Cao; Yin Cao; Rosario Cárdenas; Andre F. Carvalho; Márcia Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Giulio Castelpietra; Luis F.S. Castro-De-Araujo; Maria Sofia Cattaruzza; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Akhilanand Chaurasia; Nicolas Cherbuin; Dinh Toi Chu; Nandita Chudal; Sheng Chia Chung; Chuchu Churko; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Rafael M. Claro; Simona Costanzo; Richard G. Cowden; Michael H. Criqui; Natália Cruz-Martins; Garland T. Culbreth; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Beniam Darge Daniel; Anna Danielewicz; Jiregna Darega Gela; Kairat Davletov; Jacyra Azevedo Paiva de Araujo; Antonio Reis De Sá; Sisay Abebe Debela; Azizallah Dehghan; Andreas K. Demetriades; Meseret Derbew Molla; Rupak Desai; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Lankamo Ena Digesa; Mengistie Diress; Milad Dodangeh; Deepa Dongarwar; Fariba Dorostkar; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Bereket Duko; Bruce B. Duncan; Kristina Edvardsson; Michael Ekholuenetale; Frank J. Elgar; Muhammed Elhadi; Mohamed A. Elmonem; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Azin Etemadimanesh; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev; Fatemeh Farahmand; Carla Sofia E. Sá Farinha; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Ali Fatehizadeh; Nelsensius Klau Fauk; Valery L. Feigin; Rachel Feldman; Xiaoqi Feng; Zinabu Fentaw; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Joel Msafiri Francis; Richard Charles Franklin; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Silvano Gallus; Fabio Galvano; Balasankar Ganesan; Tushar Garg; Mesfin Gebrehiwot Damtew Gebrehiwot; Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel; Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael; Tadele Regasa Gemechu; Lemma Getacher; Motuma Erena Getachew; Abera Getachew Obsa; Asmare Getie; Amir Ghaderi; Mansour Ghafourifard; Alireza Ghajar; Seyyed Hadi Ghamari

doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00847-9

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

GBD 2020 Alcohol Collaborators, Dana Bryazka, Marissa B. Reitsma, Max G. Griswold, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari, Amir Abdoli, Mohammad Abdollahi, Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah, E. S. Abhilash, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Juan Manuel Acuna, Giovanni Addolorato, Oladimeji M. Adebayo, Victor Adekanmbi, Kishor Adhikari, Sangeet Adhikari, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah AdnaniSaira Afzal, Wubetu Yimam Agegnehu, Manik Aggarwal, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Araz Ramazan Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Ali Ahmadi, Sepideh Ahmadi, Haroon Ahmed, Tarik Ahmed Rashid, Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna, Hanadi Al Hamad, Md Zakiul Alam, Dejene Tsegaye Alem, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Yousef Alimohamadi, Atiyeh Alizadeh, Kasim Allel, Jordi Alonso, Saba Alvand, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Firehiwot Amare, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Sohrab Amiri, Robert Ancuceanu, Jason A. Anderson, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Jalal Arabloo, Muhammad Arshad, Anton A. Artamonov, Zahra Aryan, Malke Asaad, Mulusew A. Asemahagn, Thomas Astell-Burt, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Desta Debalkie Atnafu, Prince Atorkey, Alok Atreya, Floriane Ausloos, Marcel Ausloos, Getinet Ayano, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Olatunde O. Ayinde, Jose L. Ayuso-Mateos, Sina Azadnajafabad, Melkalem Mamuye Azanaw, Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy, Amirhossein Azari Jafari, Ahmed Y. Azzam, Ashish D. Badiye, Nasser Bagheri, Sara Bagherieh, Mohan Bairwa, Shankar M. Bakkannavar, Ravleen Kaur Bakshi, Awraris Hailu Balchut Bilchut, T. W. Bärnighausen, Fabio Barra, Amadou Barrow, Pritish Baskaran, Luis Belo, Derrick A. Bennett, Isabela M. Bensenor, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Neeraj Bhala, Ashish Bhalla, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Sonu Bhaskar, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja, Bagas Suryo Bintoro, Elena A.Elena Blokhina, Belay Boda Abule Bodicha, Archith Boloor, Cristina Bosetti, Dejana Braithwaite, Hermann Brenner, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Andre R. Brunoni, Zahid A. Butt, Chao Cao, Yin Cao, Rosario Cárdenas, Andre F. Carvalho, Márcia Carvalho, Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Giulio Castelpietra, Luis F.S. Castro-De-Araujo, Maria Sofia Cattaruzza, Promit Ananyo Chakraborty, Jaykaran Charan, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Akhilanand Chaurasia, Nicolas Cherbuin, Dinh Toi Chu, Nandita Chudal, Sheng Chia Chung, Chuchu Churko, Liliana G. Ciobanu, Massimo Cirillo, Rafael M. Claro, Simona Costanzo, Richard G. Cowden, Michael H. Criqui, Natália Cruz-Martins, Garland T. Culbreth, Berihun Assefa Dachew, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Giovanni Damiani, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Beniam Darge Daniel, Anna Danielewicz, Jiregna Darega Gela, Kairat Davletov, Jacyra Azevedo Paiva de Araujo, Antonio Reis De Sá, Sisay Abebe Debela, Azizallah Dehghan, Andreas K. Demetriades, Meseret Derbew Molla, Rupak Desai, Abebaw Alemayehu Desta, Diana Dias da Silva, Daniel Diaz, Lankamo Ena Digesa, Mengistie Diress, Milad Dodangeh, Deepa Dongarwar, Fariba Dorostkar, Haneil Larson Dsouza, Bereket Duko, Bruce B. Duncan, Kristina Edvardsson, Michael Ekholuenetale, Frank J. Elgar, Muhammed Elhadi, Mohamed A. Elmonem, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Azin Etemadimanesh, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev, Fatemeh Farahmand, Carla Sofia E. Sá Farinha, Andre Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Ali Fatehizadeh, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Valery L. Feigin, Rachel Feldman, Xiaoqi Feng, Zinabu Fentaw, Simone Ferrero, Lorenzo Ferro Desideri, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Joel Msafiri Francis, Richard Charles Franklin, Peter Andras Gaal, Mohamed M. Gad, Silvano Gallus, Fabio Galvano, Balasankar Ganesan, Tushar Garg, Mesfin Gebrehiwot Damtew Gebrehiwot, Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel, Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael, Tadele Regasa Gemechu, Lemma Getacher, Motuma Erena Getachew, Abera Getachew Obsa, Asmare Getie, Amir Ghaderi, Mansour Ghafourifard, Alireza Ghajar, Seyyed Hadi Ghamari

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

320 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background: The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods: For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings: The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male. Interpretation: There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	185-235
Number of pages	51
Journal	The Lancet
Volume	400
Issue number	10347
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00847-9
State	Published - Jul 16 2022

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10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00847-9

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GBD 2020 Alcohol Collaborators, Bryazka, D., Reitsma, M. B., Griswold, M. G., Abate, K. H., Abbafati, C., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., Abbasi-Kangevari, Z., Abdoli, A., Abdollahi, M., Abdullah, A. Y. M., Abhilash, E. S., Abu-Gharbieh, E., Acuna, J. M., Addolorato, G., Adebayo, O. M., Adekanmbi, V., Adhikari, K., Adhikari, S., ... Ghamari, S. H. (2022). Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020. The Lancet, 400(10347), 185-235. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00847-9

@article{d95a236348de4c92a29fca26c59f62a3,

title = "Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020",

abstract = "Background: The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods: For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings: The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male. Interpretation: There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.",

author = "{GBD 2020 Alcohol Collaborators} and Dana Bryazka and Reitsma, {Marissa B.} and Griswold, {Max G.} and Abate, {Kalkidan Hassen} and Cristiana Abbafati and Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari and Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari and Amir Abdoli and Mohammad Abdollahi and Abdullah, {Abu Yousuf Md} and Abhilash, {E. S.} and Eman Abu-Gharbieh and Acuna, {Juan Manuel} and Giovanni Addolorato and Adebayo, {Oladimeji M.} and Victor Adekanmbi and Kishor Adhikari and Sangeet Adhikari and Adnani, {Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah} and Saira Afzal and Agegnehu, {Wubetu Yimam} and Manik Aggarwal and Ahinkorah, {Bright Opoku} and Ahmad, {Araz Ramazan} and Sajjad Ahmad and Tauseef Ahmad and Ali Ahmadi and Sepideh Ahmadi and Haroon Ahmed and {Ahmed Rashid}, Tarik and Akunna, {Chisom Joyqueenet} and {Al Hamad}, Hanadi and Alam, {Md Zakiul} and Alem, {Dejene Tsegaye} and Alene, {Kefyalew Addis} and Yousef Alimohamadi and Atiyeh Alizadeh and Kasim Allel and Jordi Alonso and Saba Alvand and Nelson Alvis-Guzman and Firehiwot Amare and Ameyaw, {Edward Kwabena} and Sohrab Amiri and Robert Ancuceanu and Anderson, {Jason A.} and Andrei, {Catalina Liliana} and Tudorel Andrei and Jalal Arabloo and Muhammad Arshad and Artamonov, {Anton A.} and Zahra Aryan and Malke Asaad and Asemahagn, {Mulusew A.} and Thomas Astell-Burt and Athari, {Seyyed Shamsadin} and Atnafu, {Desta Debalkie} and Prince Atorkey and Alok Atreya and Floriane Ausloos and Marcel Ausloos and Getinet Ayano and Ayanore, {Martin Amogre} and Ayinde, {Olatunde O.} and Ayuso-Mateos, {Jose L.} and Sina Azadnajafabad and Azanaw, {Melkalem Mamuye} and Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy and {Azari Jafari}, Amirhossein and Azzam, {Ahmed Y.} and Badiye, {Ashish D.} and Nasser Bagheri and Sara Bagherieh and Mohan Bairwa and Bakkannavar, {Shankar M.} and Bakshi, {Ravleen Kaur} and Bilchut, {Awraris Hailu Balchut} and B{\"a}rnighausen, {T. W.} and Fabio Barra and Amadou Barrow and Pritish Baskaran and Luis Belo and Bennett, {Derrick A.} and Bensenor, {Isabela M.} and Bhagavathula, {Akshaya Srikanth} and Neeraj Bhala and Ashish Bhalla and Nikha Bhardwaj and Pankaj Bhardwaj and Sonu Bhaskar and Krittika Bhattacharyya and Bhojaraja, {Vijayalakshmi S.} and Bintoro, {Bagas Suryo} and Blokhina, {Elena A.Elena} and Bodicha, {Belay Boda Abule} and Archith Boloor and Cristina Bosetti and Dejana Braithwaite and Hermann Brenner and Briko, {Nikolay Ivanovich} and Brunoni, {Andre R.} and Butt, {Zahid A.} and Chao Cao and Yin Cao and Rosario C{\'a}rdenas and Carvalho, {Andre F.} and M{\'a}rcia Carvalho and Castaldelli-Maia, {Joao Mauricio} and Giulio Castelpietra and Castro-De-Araujo, {Luis F.S.} and Cattaruzza, {Maria Sofia} and Chakraborty, {Promit Ananyo} and Jaykaran Charan and Chattu, {Vijay Kumar} and Akhilanand Chaurasia and Nicolas Cherbuin and Chu, {Dinh Toi} and Nandita Chudal and Chung, {Sheng Chia} and Chuchu Churko and Ciobanu, {Liliana G.} and Massimo Cirillo and Claro, {Rafael M.} and Simona Costanzo and Cowden, {Richard G.} and Criqui, {Michael H.} and Nat{\'a}lia Cruz-Martins and Culbreth, {Garland T.} and Dachew, {Berihun Assefa} and Omid Dadras and Xiaochen Dai and Giovanni Damiani and Lalit Dandona and Rakhi Dandona and Daniel, {Beniam Darge} and Anna Danielewicz and {Darega Gela}, Jiregna and Kairat Davletov and {de Araujo}, {Jacyra Azevedo Paiva} and {De S{\'a}}, {Antonio Reis} and Debela, {Sisay Abebe} and Azizallah Dehghan and Demetriades, {Andreas K.} and {Derbew Molla}, Meseret and Rupak Desai and Desta, {Abebaw Alemayehu} and {Dias da Silva}, Diana and Daniel Diaz and Digesa, {Lankamo Ena} and Mengistie Diress and Milad Dodangeh and Deepa Dongarwar and Fariba Dorostkar and Dsouza, {Haneil Larson} and Bereket Duko and Duncan, {Bruce B.} and Kristina Edvardsson and Michael Ekholuenetale and Elgar, {Frank J.} and Muhammed Elhadi and Elmonem, {Mohamed A.} and Endries, {Aman Yesuf} and Sharareh Eskandarieh and Azin Etemadimanesh and Fagbamigbe, {Adeniyi Francis} and Fakhradiyev, {Ildar Ravisovich} and Fatemeh Farahmand and {S{\'a} Farinha}, {Carla Sofia E.} and Andre Faro and Farshad Farzadfar and Ali Fatehizadeh and Fauk, {Nelsensius Klau} and Feigin, {Valery L.} and Rachel Feldman and Xiaoqi Feng and Zinabu Fentaw and Simone Ferrero and {Ferro Desideri}, Lorenzo and Irina Filip and Florian Fischer and Francis, {Joel Msafiri} and Franklin, {Richard Charles} and Gaal, {Peter Andras} and Gad, {Mohamed M.} and Silvano Gallus and Fabio Galvano and Balasankar Ganesan and Tushar Garg and Gebrehiwot, {Mesfin Gebrehiwot Damtew} and Gebremeskel, {Teferi Gebru} and Gebremichael, {Mathewos Alemu} and Gemechu, {Tadele Regasa} and Lemma Getacher and Getachew, {Motuma Erena} and {Getachew Obsa}, Abera and Asmare Getie and Amir Ghaderi and Mansour Ghafourifard and Alireza Ghajar and Ghamari, {Seyyed Hadi}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license",

year = "2022",

month = jul,

day = "16",

doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00847-9",

language = "English",

volume = "400",

pages = "185--235",

journal = "The Lancet",

issn = "0140-6736",

number = "10347",

}

GBD 2020 Alcohol Collaborators, Bryazka, D, Reitsma, MB, Griswold, MG, Abate, KH, Abbafati, C, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abbasi-Kangevari, Z, Abdoli, A, Abdollahi, M, Abdullah, AYM, Abhilash, ES, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Acuna, JM, Addolorato, G, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adhikari, K, Adhikari, S, Adnani, QES, Afzal, S, Agegnehu, WY, Aggarwal, M, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmad, AR, Ahmad, S, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, S, Ahmed, H, Ahmed Rashid, T, Akunna, CJ, Al Hamad, H, Alam, MZ, Alem, DT, Alene, KA, Alimohamadi, Y, Alizadeh, A, Allel, K, Alonso, J, Alvand, S, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, F, Ameyaw, EK, Amiri, S, Ancuceanu, R, Anderson, JA, Andrei, CL, Andrei, T, Arabloo, J, Arshad, M, Artamonov, AA, Aryan, Z, Asaad, M, Asemahagn, MA, Astell-Burt, T, Athari, SS, Atnafu, DD, Atorkey, P, Atreya, A, Ausloos, F, Ausloos, M, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Ayinde, OO, Ayuso-Mateos, JL, Azadnajafabad, S, Azanaw, MM, Azangou-Khyavy, M, Azari Jafari, A, Azzam, AY, Badiye, AD, Bagheri, N, Bagherieh, S, Bairwa, M, Bakkannavar, SM, Bakshi, RK, Bilchut, AHB, Bärnighausen, TW, Barra, F, Barrow, A, Baskaran, P, Belo, L, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhala, N, Bhalla, A, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhaskar, S, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhojaraja, VS, Bintoro, BS, Blokhina, EAE, Bodicha, BBA, Boloor, A, Bosetti, C, Braithwaite, D, Brenner, H, Briko, NI, Brunoni, AR, Butt, ZA, Cao, C, Cao, Y, Cárdenas, R, Carvalho, AF, Carvalho, M, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castelpietra, G, Castro-De-Araujo, LFS, Cattaruzza, MS, Chakraborty, PA, Charan, J, Chattu, VK, Chaurasia, A, Cherbuin, N, Chu, DT, Chudal, N, Chung, SC, Churko, C, Ciobanu, LG, Cirillo, M, Claro, RM, Costanzo, S, Cowden, RG, Criqui, MH, Cruz-Martins, N, Culbreth, GT, Dachew, BA, Dadras, O, Dai, X, Damiani, G, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daniel, BD, Danielewicz, A, Darega Gela, J, Davletov, K, de Araujo, JAP, De Sá, AR, Debela, SA, Dehghan, A, Demetriades, AK, Derbew Molla, M, Desai, R, Desta, AA, Dias da Silva, D, Diaz, D, Digesa, LE, Diress, M, Dodangeh, M, Dongarwar, D, Dorostkar, F, Dsouza, HL, Duko, B, Duncan, BB, Edvardsson, K, Ekholuenetale, M, Elgar, FJ, Elhadi, M, Elmonem, MA, Endries, AY, Eskandarieh, S, Etemadimanesh, A, Fagbamigbe, AF, Fakhradiyev, IR, Farahmand, F, Sá Farinha, CSE, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Fatehizadeh, A, Fauk, NK, Feigin, VL, Feldman, R, Feng, X, Fentaw, Z, Ferrero, S, Ferro Desideri, L, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Francis, JM, Franklin, RC, Gaal, PA, Gad, MM, Gallus, S, Galvano, F, Ganesan, B, Garg, T, Gebrehiwot, MGD, Gebremeskel, TG, Gebremichael, MA, Gemechu, TR, Getacher, L, Getachew, ME, Getachew Obsa, A, Getie, A, Ghaderi, A, Ghafourifard, M, Ghajar, A & Ghamari, SH 2022, 'Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020', The Lancet, vol. 400, no. 10347, pp. 185-235. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00847-9

TY - JOUR

T1 - Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year

T2 - a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

AU - GBD 2020 Alcohol Collaborators

AU - Bryazka, Dana

AU - Reitsma, Marissa B.

AU - Griswold, Max G.

AU - Abate, Kalkidan Hassen

AU - Abbafati, Cristiana

AU - Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen

AU - Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab

AU - Abdoli, Amir

AU - Abdollahi, Mohammad

AU - Abdullah, Abu Yousuf Md

AU - Abhilash, E. S.

AU - Abu-Gharbieh, Eman

AU - Acuna, Juan Manuel

AU - Addolorato, Giovanni

AU - Adebayo, Oladimeji M.

AU - Adekanmbi, Victor

AU - Adhikari, Kishor

AU - Adhikari, Sangeet

AU - Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah

AU - Afzal, Saira

AU - Agegnehu, Wubetu Yimam

AU - Aggarwal, Manik

AU - Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku

AU - Ahmad, Araz Ramazan

AU - Ahmad, Sajjad

AU - Ahmad, Tauseef

AU - Ahmadi, Ali

AU - Ahmadi, Sepideh

AU - Ahmed, Haroon

AU - Ahmed Rashid, Tarik

AU - Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet

AU - Al Hamad, Hanadi

AU - Alam, Md Zakiul

AU - Alem, Dejene Tsegaye

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AU - Alizadeh, Atiyeh

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AU - Eskandarieh, Sharareh

AU - Etemadimanesh, Azin

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AU - Fakhradiyev, Ildar Ravisovich

AU - Farahmand, Fatemeh

AU - Sá Farinha, Carla Sofia E.

AU - Faro, Andre

AU - Farzadfar, Farshad

AU - Fatehizadeh, Ali

AU - Fauk, Nelsensius Klau

AU - Feigin, Valery L.

AU - Feldman, Rachel

AU - Feng, Xiaoqi

AU - Fentaw, Zinabu

AU - Ferrero, Simone

AU - Ferro Desideri, Lorenzo

AU - Filip, Irina

AU - Fischer, Florian

AU - Francis, Joel Msafiri

AU - Franklin, Richard Charles

AU - Gaal, Peter Andras

AU - Gad, Mohamed M.

AU - Gallus, Silvano

AU - Galvano, Fabio

AU - Ganesan, Balasankar

AU - Garg, Tushar

AU - Gebrehiwot, Mesfin Gebrehiwot Damtew

AU - Gebremeskel, Teferi Gebru

AU - Gebremichael, Mathewos Alemu

AU - Gemechu, Tadele Regasa

AU - Getacher, Lemma

AU - Getachew, Motuma Erena

AU - Getachew Obsa, Abera

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AU - Ghaderi, Amir

AU - Ghafourifard, Mansour

AU - Ghajar, Alireza

AU - Ghamari, Seyyed Hadi

PY - 2022/7/16

Y1 - 2022/7/16

N2 - Background: The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods: For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings: The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male. Interpretation: There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AB - Background: The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods: For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings: The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male. Interpretation: There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85134328270&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00847-9

DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00847-9

M3 - Article

C2 - 35843246

AN - SCOPUS:85134328270

SN - 0140-6736

VL - 400

SP - 185

EP - 235

JO - The Lancet

JF - The Lancet

IS - 10347

ER -

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

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