Purpose: To create a simple model using clinical variables for predicting lipid-poor angiomyolipoma (AML) in patients with small renal masses presumed to be renal cell carcinoma (RCC) from preoperative imaging. Materials and Methods: A series of patients undergoing partial nephrectomy (PN) for renal masses ≤4 cm was identified using a prospectively maintained database. Patients were excluded if standard preoperative imaging was not consistent with RCC. Chi square and Mann-Whitney U analyses were used to evaluate differences in characteristics between patients with AML and other types of pathology. A logistic regression model was constructed for multivariable analysis of predictors of lipid-poor AML. Results: A total of 730 patients were identified that underwent PN for renal masses ≤4 cm between 2007-2015, including 35 with lipid-poor AML and 620 with RCC. In multivariable analysis, the following features predicted AML: female sex (odds ratio, 6.89; 95% confidence interval, 2.35-20.92; p<0.001), age <56 years (2.84; 1.21-6.66; p=0.02), and tumor size <2 cm (5.87; 2.70-12.77; p<0.001). Sex, age, and tumor size were used to construct the BEnign Angiomyolipoma Renal Susceptibility (BEARS) index with the following point values for each particular risk factor: female sex (2 points), age <56 years (1 point), and tumor size <2 cm (2 points). Within the study population, the BEARS index distinguished AML from malignant lesions with an area under the curve of 0.84. Conclusions: Young female patients with small tumors are at risk for having lipid-poor AML despite preoperative imaging consistent with RCC. Identification of these patients may reduce the incidence of unnecessary PN for benign renal lesions.
- Decision support techniques
- Renal cell carcinoma