MELD or sodium MELD: A comparison of the ability of two scoring systems to predict outcomes after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement

OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study was to compare the ability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and sodium MELD (MELD-Na) scoring systems to predict outcomes after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Two hundred and nineteen consecutive patients who underwent TIPS placement were retrospectively reviewed. The primary outcomes were death within 30 days and 90 days after TIPS placement (30- and 90-day mortality, respectively), and secondary outcomes included death within 365 days after TIPS placement (365-day mortality), length of hospital stay, and readmission to the hospital within 30 days of TIPS placement. RESULTS. Mortality rates within 30, 90, and 365 days after TIPS placement were 2.3% (5/219), 8.2% (17/207), and 21.7% (41/189), respectively. Logistic regression showed that the MELD score predicted 30-day mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.13; 95% CI, 1.00–1.27; p = 0.04) and trended toward predicting 90-day mortality (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00–1.18; p = 0.06), whereas the MELD-Na score did not predict 30-day mortality (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.97–1.06; p = 0.51) or 90-day mortality (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.98–1.15; p = 0.44). In a comparison of the ROC AUCs for MELD and MELD-Na, MELD showed improved prediction of 30-day mortality (p = 0.06) but did not significantly vary in prediction of 90- and 365-day mortality (p = 0.80 and p = 0.76, respectively). When the maximal inflection point for MELD and MELD-Na was analyzed on the basis of 90-day mortality, a score of 23 was found to be most significant for both MELD (OR, 6.6; 95% CI, 1.5–29.1; p = 0.01) and MELD-Na (OR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.1–9.6; p = 0.03). MELD and MELD-Na both accurately predicted the length of hospital stay after TIPS placement (p = 0.005 and p = 0.01, respectively). CONCLUSION. MELD is superior to MELD-Na for predicting 30-day and, perhaps, 90-day mortality after TIPS placement. At present, decisions regarding patient selection for TIPS placement should be made on the basis of the MELD score rather than the MELD-Na score.