Low serum osteocalcin concentration is associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in Japanese women

Increasing evidence suggests that osteocalcin is involved in the regulation of glucose homeostasis. However, the relationship between serum osteocalcin levels and risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus is not clear. The objective of this study is to investigate whether serum osteocalcin levels are associated with the risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. This study included 1691 Japanese postmenopausal women, 61 incident diabetes cases, and 1630 non-diabetic control subjects in the observation period. Baseline concentrations of intact osteocalcin, HbA1c, bone-specific alkaline phosphatase, adiponectin, leptin, urinary N-telopeptides were assessed. Serum osteocalcin levels were significantly correlated with HbA1c levels among 1691 Japanese postmenopausal women (R = −0.12, P < 0.0001). In receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the optimal cut-off levels for serum osteocalcin to predict the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus was 6.1 ng/mL. The group with baseline osteocalcin levels <6.1 ng/mL showed a significantly higher risk for developing diabetes than the group with baseline osteocalcin levels >6.1 ng/mL (log-rank test, P < 0.0001) during the mean observation period (7.6 ± 6.1 years; mean ± SD). In multiple Cox proportional hazard analysis, osteocalcin levels were significantly associated with development of type 2 diabetes mellitus during the observation period. Our results indicate that a decrease in serum osteocalcin levels is associated with future development of type 2 diabetes mellitus independent of conventional risk factors in Japanese postmenopausal women.