TY - JOUR
T1 - Long-term cancer risk associated with lung nodules observed on low-dose screening CT scans
AU - Pinsky, Paul
AU - Gierada, David S.
N1 - Funding Information:
Cancer incidence data have been provided by the following state cancer registries: Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, District of Columbia, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, Virginia and Wisconsin. All are supported in part by funds from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Program for Central Registries, local states, or by the National Cancer Institute, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. The results reported here and the conclusions derived are the sole responsibility of the authors.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2020/1
Y1 - 2020/1
N2 - Objective: Non-calcified nodules (NCNs) associated with false positive low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screens have been attributed to various causes. Some, however, may represent lung cancer precursors. An association of NCNs with long-term lung cancer risk would provide indirect evidence of some NCNs being cancer precursors. Methods: LDCT arm participants in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) received LDCT screens at baseline and years 1-2. The relationship between NCNs found on LDCT screens and subsequent lung cancer diagnosis over different time periods was examined at the person and lobe level. For the latter, a lobe had a cancer outcome only if the cancer was located in the lobe. Separate analyses were performed on baseline and post-baseline LDCT findings; for the latter, those with baseline NCNs were excluded and only new (non-pre-existing) NCNs examined. Raw and adjusted rate-ratios (RRs) were computed for presence of NCNs and subsequent lung cancer risk; adjusted RRs controlled for demographic and smoking factors. Results: 26,309 participants received the baseline LDCT screen. Over median 11.3 years follow-up, 1675 lung cancers were diagnosed. Adjusted RRs for time periods 0–4, 4–8 and 8−12 years following the baseline screen were 5.1 (95 % CI:4.4–5.9), 1.5 (95 % CI:1.3–1.9) and 1.5 (95 % CI:1.2-1.8) at the person-level and 14.7 (95 % CI:12.6–17.2), 2.6 (95 % CI: 2.0–3.4) and 2.2 (95 % CI:1.6–2.9) at the lobe-level. 18,585 participants were included in the post-baseline analysis. Adjusted RRs for periods 0–4, 4–8 and 8−11 years were 5.6 (95 % CI: 4.5–7.0), 1.9 (95 % CI: 1.3–2.7) and 1.6 (95 % CI: 0.9–2.9) at the person-level and 19.6 (95 % CI:14.9–25.3), 2.5 (95 % CI:1.3–4.7) and 3.3 (95 % CI:1.4–7.6) at the lobe-level. Raw RRs were similar. Conclusion: NCNs are associated with excess long-term lung cancer risk, suggesting that some may be lung cancer precursors.
AB - Objective: Non-calcified nodules (NCNs) associated with false positive low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screens have been attributed to various causes. Some, however, may represent lung cancer precursors. An association of NCNs with long-term lung cancer risk would provide indirect evidence of some NCNs being cancer precursors. Methods: LDCT arm participants in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) received LDCT screens at baseline and years 1-2. The relationship between NCNs found on LDCT screens and subsequent lung cancer diagnosis over different time periods was examined at the person and lobe level. For the latter, a lobe had a cancer outcome only if the cancer was located in the lobe. Separate analyses were performed on baseline and post-baseline LDCT findings; for the latter, those with baseline NCNs were excluded and only new (non-pre-existing) NCNs examined. Raw and adjusted rate-ratios (RRs) were computed for presence of NCNs and subsequent lung cancer risk; adjusted RRs controlled for demographic and smoking factors. Results: 26,309 participants received the baseline LDCT screen. Over median 11.3 years follow-up, 1675 lung cancers were diagnosed. Adjusted RRs for time periods 0–4, 4–8 and 8−12 years following the baseline screen were 5.1 (95 % CI:4.4–5.9), 1.5 (95 % CI:1.3–1.9) and 1.5 (95 % CI:1.2-1.8) at the person-level and 14.7 (95 % CI:12.6–17.2), 2.6 (95 % CI: 2.0–3.4) and 2.2 (95 % CI:1.6–2.9) at the lobe-level. 18,585 participants were included in the post-baseline analysis. Adjusted RRs for periods 0–4, 4–8 and 8−11 years were 5.6 (95 % CI: 4.5–7.0), 1.9 (95 % CI: 1.3–2.7) and 1.6 (95 % CI: 0.9–2.9) at the person-level and 19.6 (95 % CI:14.9–25.3), 2.5 (95 % CI:1.3–4.7) and 3.3 (95 % CI:1.4–7.6) at the lobe-level. Raw RRs were similar. Conclusion: NCNs are associated with excess long-term lung cancer risk, suggesting that some may be lung cancer precursors.
KW - Long-term risk
KW - Low-dose CT
KW - Lung cancer
KW - Non-calcified nodule
KW - Screening
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85077401455&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.lungcan.2019.11.017
DO - 10.1016/j.lungcan.2019.11.017
M3 - Article
C2 - 31812129
AN - SCOPUS:85077401455
SN - 0169-5002
VL - 139
SP - 179
EP - 184
JO - Lung Cancer
JF - Lung Cancer
ER -