Lessons Learned from Nonproliferation Successes and Failures

There have been a number of nuclear non-proliferation successes (Germany, Iraq, Taiwan, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Libya, Syria) and failures (USSR, France, China, India, Pakistan, probably Israel, North Korea [DPRK]), and at least one potential proliferator (Iran) whose future is uncertain. The successes are heterogeneous: some resulted from direct military or paramilitary action, while others followed changes in the political situation that removed the strategic rationale for or the willingness to pay the economic and political price of proliferation. The failures have in common a proliferator that perceived a compelling strategic need for nuclear weapons. Such countries resist outside pressures, and may reap the benefits of proliferation even if their weapons are untested. I consider the relevance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treat to proliferation in light of this history.