Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Lidong Mo; Constantin M. Zohner; Peter B. Reich; Jingjing Liang; Sergio de Miguel; Gert Jan Nabuurs; Susanne S. Renner; Johan van den Hoogen; Arnan Araza; Martin Herold; Leila Mirzagholi; Haozhi Ma; Colin Averill; Oliver L. Phillips; Javier G.P. Gamarra; Iris Hordijk; Devin Routh; Meinrad Abegg; Yves C. Adou Yao; Giorgio Alberti; Angelica M. Almeyda Zambrano; Braulio Vilchez Alvarado; Esteban Alvarez-Dávila; Patricia Alvarez-Loayza; Luciana F. Alves; Iêda Amaral; Christian Ammer; Clara Antón-Fernández; Alejandro Araujo-Murakami; Luzmila Arroyo; Valerio Avitabile; Gerardo A. Aymard; Timothy R. Baker; Radomir Bałazy; Olaf Banki; Jorcely G. Barroso; Meredith L. Bastian; Jean Francois Bastin; Luca Birigazzi; Philippe Birnbaum; Robert Bitariho; Pascal Boeckx; Frans Bongers; Olivier Bouriaud; Pedro H.S. Brancalion; Susanne Brandl; Francis Q. Brearley; Roel Brienen; Eben N. Broadbent; Helge Bruelheide; Filippo Bussotti; Roberto Cazzolla Gatti; Ricardo G. César; Goran Cesljar; Robin L. Chazdon; Han Y.H. Chen; Chelsea Chisholm; Hyunkook Cho; Emil Cienciala; Connie Clark; David Clark; Gabriel D. Colletta; David A. Coomes; Fernando Cornejo Valverde; José J. Corral-Rivas; Philip M. Crim; Jonathan R. Cumming; Selvadurai Dayanandan; André L. de Gasper; Mathieu Decuyper; Géraldine Derroire; Ben DeVries; Ilija Djordjevic; Jiri Dolezal; Aurélie Dourdain; Nestor Laurier Engone Obiang; Brian J. Enquist; Teresa J. Eyre; Adandé Belarmain Fandohan; Tom M. Fayle; Ted R. Feldpausch; Leandro V. Ferreira; Leena Finér; Markus Fischer; Christine Fletcher; Lorenzo Frizzera; Damiano Gianelle; Henry B. Glick; David J. Harris; Andrew Hector; Andreas Hemp; Geerten Hengeveld; Bruno Hérault; John L. Herbohn; Annika Hillers; Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado; Cang Hui; Thomas Ibanez; Nobuo Imai; Andrzej M. Jagodziński; Bogdan Jaroszewicz; Vivian Kvist Johannsen; Carlos A. Joly; Tommaso Jucker; Ilbin Jung; Viktor Karminov; Kuswata Kartawinata; Elizabeth Kearsley; David Kenfack; Deborah K. Kennard; Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas; Gunnar Keppel; Mohammed Latif Khan; Timothy J. Killeen; Hyun Seok Kim; Kanehiro Kitayama; Michael Köhl; Henn Korjus; Florian Kraxner; Dmitry Kucher; Diana Laarmann; Mait Lang; Huicui Lu; Natalia V. Lukina; Brian S. Maitner; Yadvinder Malhi; Eric Marcon; Beatriz Schwantes Marimon; Ben Hur Marimon-Junior; Andrew R. Marshall; Emanuel H. Martin; Jorge A. Meave; Omar Melo-Cruz; Casimiro Mendoza; Irina Mendoza-Polo; Stanislaw Miscicki; Cory Merow; Abel Monteagudo Mendoza; Vanessa S. Moreno; Sharif A. Mukul; Philip Mundhenk; María Guadalupe Nava-Miranda; David Neill; Victor J. Neldner; Radovan V. Nevenic; Michael R. Ngugi; Pascal A. Niklaus; Jacek Oleksyn; Petr Ontikov; Edgar Ortiz-Malavasi; Yude Pan; Alain Paquette; Alexander Parada-Gutierrez; Elena I. Parfenova; Minjee Park; Marc Parren; Narayanaswamy Parthasarathy; Pablo L. Peri; Sebastian Pfautsch; Nicolas Picard; Maria Teresa F. Piedade; Daniel Piotto; Nigel C.A. Pitman; Axel Dalberg Poulsen; John R. Poulsen; Hans Pretzsch; Freddy Ramirez Arevalo; Zorayda Restrepo-Correa; Mirco Rodeghiero; Samir G. Rolim; Anand Roopsind; Francesco Rovero; Ervan Rutishauser; Purabi Saikia; Christian Salas-Eljatib; Philippe Saner; Peter Schall; Mart Jan Schelhaas; Dmitry Schepaschenko; Michael Scherer-Lorenzen; Bernhard Schmid; Jochen Schöngart; Eric B. Searle; Vladimír Seben; Josep M. Serra-Diaz; Douglas Sheil; Anatoly Z. Shvidenko; Javier E. Silva-Espejo; Marcos Silveira; James Singh; Plinio Sist; Ferry Slik; Bonaventure Sonké; Alexandre F. Souza; Krzysztof J. Stereńczak; Jens Christian Svenning; Miroslav Svoboda; Ben Swanepoel; Natalia Targhetta; Nadja Tchebakova; Hans ter Steege; Raquel Thomas; Elena Tikhonova; Peter M. Umunay; Vladimir A. Usoltsev; Renato Valencia; Fernando Valladares; Fons van der Plas; Tran Van Do; Michael E. van Nuland; Rodolfo M. Vasquez; Hans Verbeeck; Helder Viana; Alexander C. Vibrans; Simone Vieira; Klaus von Gadow; Hua Feng Wang; James V. Watson; Gijsbert D.A. Werner; Susan K. Wiser; Florian Wittmann; Hannsjoerg Woell; Verginia Wortel; Roderik Zagt; Tomasz Zawiła-Niedźwiecki; Chunyu Zhang; Xiuhai Zhao; Mo Zhou; Zhi Xin Zhu; Irie C. Zo-Bi; George D. Gann; Thomas W. Crowther

doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Lidong Mo, Constantin M. Zohner, Peter B. Reich, Jingjing Liang, Sergio de Miguel, Gert Jan Nabuurs, Susanne S. Renner, Johan van den Hoogen, Arnan Araza, Martin Herold, Leila Mirzagholi, Haozhi Ma, Colin Averill, Oliver L. Phillips, Javier G.P. Gamarra, Iris Hordijk, Devin Routh, Meinrad Abegg, Yves C. Adou Yao, Giorgio AlbertiAngelica M. Almeyda Zambrano, Braulio Vilchez Alvarado, Esteban Alvarez-Dávila, Patricia Alvarez-Loayza, Luciana F. Alves, Iêda Amaral, Christian Ammer, Clara Antón-Fernández, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Luzmila Arroyo, Valerio Avitabile, Gerardo A. Aymard, Timothy R. Baker, Radomir Bałazy, Olaf Banki, Jorcely G. Barroso, Meredith L. Bastian, Jean Francois Bastin, Luca Birigazzi, Philippe Birnbaum, Robert Bitariho, Pascal Boeckx, Frans Bongers, Olivier Bouriaud, Pedro H.S. Brancalion, Susanne Brandl, Francis Q. Brearley, Roel Brienen, Eben N. Broadbent, Helge Bruelheide, Filippo Bussotti, Roberto Cazzolla Gatti, Ricardo G. César, Goran Cesljar, Robin L. Chazdon, Han Y.H. Chen, Chelsea Chisholm, Hyunkook Cho, Emil Cienciala, Connie Clark, David Clark, Gabriel D. Colletta, David A. Coomes, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, José J. Corral-Rivas, Philip M. Crim, Jonathan R. Cumming, Selvadurai Dayanandan, André L. de Gasper, Mathieu Decuyper, Géraldine Derroire, Ben DeVries, Ilija Djordjevic, Jiri Dolezal, Aurélie Dourdain, Nestor Laurier Engone Obiang, Brian J. Enquist, Teresa J. Eyre, Adandé Belarmain Fandohan, Tom M. Fayle, Ted R. Feldpausch, Leandro V. Ferreira, Leena Finér, Markus Fischer, Christine Fletcher, Lorenzo Frizzera, Damiano Gianelle, Henry B. Glick, David J. Harris, Andrew Hector, Andreas Hemp, Geerten Hengeveld, Bruno Hérault, John L. Herbohn, Annika Hillers, Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado, Cang Hui, Thomas Ibanez, Nobuo Imai, Andrzej M. Jagodziński, Bogdan Jaroszewicz, Vivian Kvist Johannsen, Carlos A. Joly, Tommaso Jucker, Ilbin Jung, Viktor Karminov, Kuswata Kartawinata, Elizabeth Kearsley, David Kenfack, Deborah K. Kennard, Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas, Gunnar Keppel, Mohammed Latif Khan, Timothy J. Killeen, Hyun Seok Kim, Kanehiro Kitayama, Michael Köhl, Henn Korjus, Florian Kraxner, Dmitry Kucher, Diana Laarmann, Mait Lang, Huicui Lu, Natalia V. Lukina, Brian S. Maitner, Yadvinder Malhi, Eric Marcon, Beatriz Schwantes Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon-Junior, Andrew R. Marshall, Emanuel H. Martin, Jorge A. Meave, Omar Melo-Cruz, Casimiro Mendoza, Irina Mendoza-Polo, Stanislaw Miscicki, Cory Merow, Abel Monteagudo Mendoza, Vanessa S. Moreno, Sharif A. Mukul, Philip Mundhenk, María Guadalupe Nava-Miranda, David Neill, Victor J. Neldner, Radovan V. Nevenic, Michael R. Ngugi, Pascal A. Niklaus, Jacek Oleksyn, Petr Ontikov, Edgar Ortiz-Malavasi, Yude Pan, Alain Paquette, Alexander Parada-Gutierrez, Elena I. Parfenova, Minjee Park, Marc Parren, Narayanaswamy Parthasarathy, Pablo L. Peri, Sebastian Pfautsch, Nicolas Picard, Maria Teresa F. Piedade, Daniel Piotto, Nigel C.A. Pitman, Axel Dalberg Poulsen, John R. Poulsen, Hans Pretzsch, Freddy Ramirez Arevalo, Zorayda Restrepo-Correa, Mirco Rodeghiero, Samir G. Rolim, Anand Roopsind, Francesco Rovero, Ervan Rutishauser, Purabi Saikia, Christian Salas-Eljatib, Philippe Saner, Peter Schall, Mart Jan Schelhaas, Dmitry Schepaschenko, Michael Scherer-Lorenzen, Bernhard Schmid, Jochen Schöngart, Eric B. Searle, Vladimír Seben, Josep M. Serra-Diaz, Douglas Sheil, Anatoly Z. Shvidenko, Javier E. Silva-Espejo, Marcos Silveira, James Singh, Plinio Sist, Ferry Slik, Bonaventure Sonké, Alexandre F. Souza, Krzysztof J. Stereńczak, Jens Christian Svenning, Miroslav Svoboda, Ben Swanepoel, Natalia Targhetta, Nadja Tchebakova, Hans ter Steege, Raquel Thomas, Elena Tikhonova, Peter M. Umunay, Vladimir A. Usoltsev, Renato Valencia, Fernando Valladares, Fons van der Plas, Tran Van Do, Michael E. van Nuland, Rodolfo M. Vasquez, Hans Verbeeck, Helder Viana, Alexander C. Vibrans, Simone Vieira, Klaus von Gadow, Hua Feng Wang, James V. Watson, Gijsbert D.A. Werner, Susan K. Wiser, Florian Wittmann, Hannsjoerg Woell, Verginia Wortel, Roderik Zagt, Tomasz Zawiła-Niedźwiecki, Chunyu Zhang, Xiuhai Zhao, Mo Zhou, Zhi Xin Zhu, Irie C. Zo-Bi, George D. Gann, Thomas W. Crowther

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

87 Scopus citations

Abstract

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system¹. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests^2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced⁶ and satellite-derived approaches^2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea^2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	92-101
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature
Volume	624
Issue number	7990
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z
State	Published - Dec 7 2023

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10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

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Mo, L., Zohner, C. M., Reich, P. B., Liang, J., de Miguel, S., Nabuurs, G. J., Renner, S. S., van den Hoogen, J., Araza, A., Herold, M., Mirzagholi, L., Ma, H., Averill, C., Phillips, O. L., Gamarra, J. G. P., Hordijk, I., Routh, D., Abegg, M., Adou Yao, Y. C., ... Crowther, T. W. (2023). Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential. Nature, 624(7990), 92-101. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

@article{80ba4c3cff0d42379841da30975809b2,

title = "Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential",

abstract = "Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system 1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests 2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced 6 and satellite-derived approaches 2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea 2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.",

author = "Lidong Mo and Zohner, {Constantin M.} and Reich, {Peter B.} and Jingjing Liang and {de Miguel}, Sergio and Nabuurs, {Gert Jan} and Renner, {Susanne S.} and {van den Hoogen}, Johan and Arnan Araza and Martin Herold and Leila Mirzagholi and Haozhi Ma and Colin Averill and Phillips, {Oliver L.} and Gamarra, {Javier G.P.} and Iris Hordijk and Devin Routh and Meinrad Abegg and {Adou Yao}, {Yves C.} and Giorgio Alberti and {Almeyda Zambrano}, {Angelica M.} and Alvarado, {Braulio Vilchez} and Esteban Alvarez-D{\'a}vila and Patricia Alvarez-Loayza and Alves, {Luciana F.} and I{\^e}da Amaral and Christian Ammer and Clara Ant{\'o}n-Fern{\'a}ndez and Alejandro Araujo-Murakami and Luzmila Arroyo and Valerio Avitabile and Aymard, {Gerardo A.} and Baker, {Timothy R.} and Radomir Ba{\l}azy and Olaf Banki and Barroso, {Jorcely G.} and Bastian, {Meredith L.} and Bastin, {Jean Francois} and Luca Birigazzi and Philippe Birnbaum and Robert Bitariho and Pascal Boeckx and Frans Bongers and Olivier Bouriaud and Brancalion, {Pedro H.S.} and Susanne Brandl and Brearley, {Francis Q.} and Roel Brienen and Broadbent, {Eben N.} and Helge Bruelheide and Filippo Bussotti and {Cazzolla Gatti}, Roberto and C{\'e}sar, {Ricardo G.} and Goran Cesljar and Chazdon, {Robin L.} and Chen, {Han Y.H.} and Chelsea Chisholm and Hyunkook Cho and Emil Cienciala and Connie Clark and David Clark and Colletta, {Gabriel D.} and Coomes, {David A.} and {Cornejo Valverde}, Fernando and Corral-Rivas, {Jos{\'e} J.} and Crim, {Philip M.} and Cumming, {Jonathan R.} and Selvadurai Dayanandan and {de Gasper}, {Andr{\'e} L.} and Mathieu Decuyper and G{\'e}raldine Derroire and Ben DeVries and Ilija Djordjevic and Jiri Dolezal and Aur{\'e}lie Dourdain and {Engone Obiang}, {Nestor Laurier} and Enquist, {Brian J.} and Eyre, {Teresa J.} and Fandohan, {Adand{\'e} Belarmain} and Fayle, {Tom M.} and Feldpausch, {Ted R.} and Ferreira, {Leandro V.} and Leena Fin{\'e}r and Markus Fischer and Christine Fletcher and Lorenzo Frizzera and Damiano Gianelle and Glick, {Henry B.} and Harris, {David J.} and Andrew Hector and Andreas Hemp and Geerten Hengeveld and Bruno H{\'e}rault and Herbohn, {John L.} and Annika Hillers and {Honorio Coronado}, {Eur{\'i}dice N.} and Cang Hui and Thomas Ibanez and Nobuo Imai and Jagodzi{\'n}ski, {Andrzej M.} and Bogdan Jaroszewicz and Johannsen, {Vivian Kvist} and Joly, {Carlos A.} and Tommaso Jucker and Ilbin Jung and Viktor Karminov and Kuswata Kartawinata and Elizabeth Kearsley and David Kenfack and Kennard, {Deborah K.} and Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas and Gunnar Keppel and Khan, {Mohammed Latif} and Killeen, {Timothy J.} and Kim, {Hyun Seok} and Kanehiro Kitayama and Michael K{\"o}hl and Henn Korjus and Florian Kraxner and Dmitry Kucher and Diana Laarmann and Mait Lang and Huicui Lu and Lukina, {Natalia V.} and Maitner, {Brian S.} and Yadvinder Malhi and Eric Marcon and Marimon, {Beatriz Schwantes} and Marimon-Junior, {Ben Hur} and Marshall, {Andrew R.} and Martin, {Emanuel H.} and Meave, {Jorge A.} and Omar Melo-Cruz and Casimiro Mendoza and Irina Mendoza-Polo and Stanislaw Miscicki and Cory Merow and {Monteagudo Mendoza}, Abel and Moreno, {Vanessa S.} and Mukul, {Sharif A.} and Philip Mundhenk and Nava-Miranda, {Mar{\'i}a Guadalupe} and David Neill and Neldner, {Victor J.} and Nevenic, {Radovan V.} and Ngugi, {Michael R.} and Niklaus, {Pascal A.} and Jacek Oleksyn and Petr Ontikov and Edgar Ortiz-Malavasi and Yude Pan and Alain Paquette and Alexander Parada-Gutierrez and Parfenova, {Elena I.} and Minjee Park and Marc Parren and Narayanaswamy Parthasarathy and Peri, {Pablo L.} and Sebastian Pfautsch and Nicolas Picard and Piedade, {Maria Teresa F.} and Daniel Piotto and Pitman, {Nigel C.A.} and Poulsen, {Axel Dalberg} and Poulsen, {John R.} and Hans Pretzsch and {Ramirez Arevalo}, Freddy and Zorayda Restrepo-Correa and Mirco Rodeghiero and Rolim, {Samir G.} and Anand Roopsind and Francesco Rovero and Ervan Rutishauser and Purabi Saikia and Christian Salas-Eljatib and Philippe Saner and Peter Schall and Schelhaas, {Mart Jan} and Dmitry Schepaschenko and Michael Scherer-Lorenzen and Bernhard Schmid and Jochen Sch{\"o}ngart and Searle, {Eric B.} and Vladim{\'i}r Seben and Serra-Diaz, {Josep M.} and Douglas Sheil and Shvidenko, {Anatoly Z.} and Silva-Espejo, {Javier E.} and Marcos Silveira and James Singh and Plinio Sist and Ferry Slik and Bonaventure Sonk{\'e} and Souza, {Alexandre F.} and Stere{\'n}czak, {Krzysztof J.} and Svenning, {Jens Christian} and Miroslav Svoboda and Ben Swanepoel and Natalia Targhetta and Nadja Tchebakova and {ter Steege}, Hans and Raquel Thomas and Elena Tikhonova and Umunay, {Peter M.} and Usoltsev, {Vladimir A.} and Renato Valencia and Fernando Valladares and {van der Plas}, Fons and {Van Do}, Tran and {van Nuland}, {Michael E.} and Vasquez, {Rodolfo M.} and Hans Verbeeck and Helder Viana and Vibrans, {Alexander C.} and Simone Vieira and {von Gadow}, Klaus and Wang, {Hua Feng} and Watson, {James V.} and Werner, {Gijsbert D.A.} and Wiser, {Susan K.} and Florian Wittmann and Hannsjoerg Woell and Verginia Wortel and Roderik Zagt and Tomasz Zawi{\l}a-Nied{\'z}wiecki and Chunyu Zhang and Xiuhai Zhao and Mo Zhou and Zhu, {Zhi Xin} and Zo-Bi, {Irie C.} and Gann, {George D.} and Crowther, {Thomas W.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, The Author(s).",

year = "2023",

month = dec,

day = "7",

doi = "10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z",

language = "English",

volume = "624",

pages = "92--101",

journal = "Nature",

issn = "0028-0836",

number = "7990",

}

Mo, L, Zohner, CM, Reich, PB, Liang, J, de Miguel, S, Nabuurs, GJ, Renner, SS, van den Hoogen, J, Araza, A, Herold, M, Mirzagholi, L, Ma, H, Averill, C, Phillips, OL, Gamarra, JGP, Hordijk, I, Routh, D, Abegg, M, Adou Yao, YC, Alberti, G, Almeyda Zambrano, AM, Alvarado, BV, Alvarez-Dávila, E, Alvarez-Loayza, P, Alves, LF, Amaral, I, Ammer, C, Antón-Fernández, C, Araujo-Murakami, A, Arroyo, L, Avitabile, V, Aymard, GA, Baker, TR, Bałazy, R, Banki, O, Barroso, JG, Bastian, ML, Bastin, JF, Birigazzi, L, Birnbaum, P, Bitariho, R, Boeckx, P, Bongers, F, Bouriaud, O, Brancalion, PHS, Brandl, S, Brearley, FQ, Brienen, R, Broadbent, EN, Bruelheide, H, Bussotti, F, Cazzolla Gatti, R, César, RG, Cesljar, G, Chazdon, RL, Chen, HYH, Chisholm, C, Cho, H, Cienciala, E, Clark, C, Clark, D, Colletta, GD, Coomes, DA, Cornejo Valverde, F, Corral-Rivas, JJ, Crim, PM, Cumming, JR, Dayanandan, S, de Gasper, AL, Decuyper, M, Derroire, G, DeVries, B, Djordjevic, I, Dolezal, J, Dourdain, A, Engone Obiang, NL, Enquist, BJ, Eyre, TJ, Fandohan, AB, Fayle, TM, Feldpausch, TR, Ferreira, LV, Finér, L, Fischer, M, Fletcher, C, Frizzera, L, Gianelle, D, Glick, HB, Harris, DJ, Hector, A, Hemp, A, Hengeveld, G, Hérault, B, Herbohn, JL, Hillers, A, Honorio Coronado, EN, Hui, C, Ibanez, T, Imai, N, Jagodziński, AM, Jaroszewicz, B, Johannsen, VK, Joly, CA, Jucker, T, Jung, I, Karminov, V, Kartawinata, K, Kearsley, E, Kenfack, D, Kennard, DK, Kepfer-Rojas, S, Keppel, G, Khan, ML, Killeen, TJ, Kim, HS, Kitayama, K, Köhl, M, Korjus, H, Kraxner, F, Kucher, D, Laarmann, D, Lang, M, Lu, H, Lukina, NV, Maitner, BS, Malhi, Y, Marcon, E, Marimon, BS, Marimon-Junior, BH, Marshall, AR, Martin, EH, Meave, JA, Melo-Cruz, O, Mendoza, C, Mendoza-Polo, I, Miscicki, S, Merow, C, Monteagudo Mendoza, A, Moreno, VS, Mukul, SA, Mundhenk, P, Nava-Miranda, MG, Neill, D, Neldner, VJ, Nevenic, RV, Ngugi, MR, Niklaus, PA, Oleksyn, J, Ontikov, P, Ortiz-Malavasi, E, Pan, Y, Paquette, A, Parada-Gutierrez, A, Parfenova, EI, Park, M, Parren, M, Parthasarathy, N, Peri, PL, Pfautsch, S, Picard, N, Piedade, MTF, Piotto, D, Pitman, NCA, Poulsen, AD, Poulsen, JR, Pretzsch, H, Ramirez Arevalo, F, Restrepo-Correa, Z, Rodeghiero, M, Rolim, SG, Roopsind, A, Rovero, F, Rutishauser, E, Saikia, P, Salas-Eljatib, C, Saner, P, Schall, P, Schelhaas, MJ, Schepaschenko, D, Scherer-Lorenzen, M, Schmid, B, Schöngart, J, Searle, EB, Seben, V, Serra-Diaz, JM, Sheil, D, Shvidenko, AZ, Silva-Espejo, JE, Silveira, M, Singh, J, Sist, P, Slik, F, Sonké, B, Souza, AF, Stereńczak, KJ, Svenning, JC, Svoboda, M, Swanepoel, B, Targhetta, N, Tchebakova, N, ter Steege, H, Thomas, R, Tikhonova, E, Umunay, PM, Usoltsev, VA, Valencia, R, Valladares, F, van der Plas, F, Van Do, T, van Nuland, ME, Vasquez, RM, Verbeeck, H, Viana, H, Vibrans, AC, Vieira, S, von Gadow, K, Wang, HF, Watson, JV, Werner, GDA, Wiser, SK, Wittmann, F, Woell, H, Wortel, V, Zagt, R, Zawiła-Niedźwiecki, T, Zhang, C, Zhao, X, Zhou, M, Zhu, ZX, Zo-Bi, IC, Gann, GD & Crowther, TW 2023, 'Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential', Nature, vol. 624, no. 7990, pp. 92-101. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

TY - JOUR

T1 - Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

AU - Mo, Lidong

AU - Zohner, Constantin M.

AU - Reich, Peter B.

AU - Liang, Jingjing

AU - de Miguel, Sergio

AU - Nabuurs, Gert Jan

AU - Renner, Susanne S.

AU - van den Hoogen, Johan

AU - Araza, Arnan

AU - Herold, Martin

AU - Mirzagholi, Leila

AU - Ma, Haozhi

AU - Averill, Colin

AU - Phillips, Oliver L.

AU - Gamarra, Javier G.P.

AU - Hordijk, Iris

AU - Routh, Devin

AU - Abegg, Meinrad

AU - Adou Yao, Yves C.

AU - Alberti, Giorgio

AU - Almeyda Zambrano, Angelica M.

AU - Alvarado, Braulio Vilchez

AU - Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban

AU - Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia

AU - Alves, Luciana F.

AU - Amaral, Iêda

AU - Ammer, Christian

AU - Antón-Fernández, Clara

AU - Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro

AU - Arroyo, Luzmila

AU - Avitabile, Valerio

AU - Aymard, Gerardo A.

AU - Baker, Timothy R.

AU - Bałazy, Radomir

AU - Banki, Olaf

AU - Barroso, Jorcely G.

AU - Bastian, Meredith L.

AU - Bastin, Jean Francois

AU - Birigazzi, Luca

AU - Birnbaum, Philippe

AU - Bitariho, Robert

AU - Boeckx, Pascal

AU - Bongers, Frans

AU - Bouriaud, Olivier

AU - Brancalion, Pedro H.S.

AU - Brandl, Susanne

AU - Brearley, Francis Q.

AU - Brienen, Roel

AU - Broadbent, Eben N.

AU - Bruelheide, Helge

AU - Bussotti, Filippo

AU - Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto

AU - César, Ricardo G.

AU - Cesljar, Goran

AU - Chazdon, Robin L.

AU - Chen, Han Y.H.

AU - Chisholm, Chelsea

AU - Cho, Hyunkook

AU - Cienciala, Emil

AU - Clark, Connie

AU - Clark, David

AU - Colletta, Gabriel D.

AU - Coomes, David A.

AU - Cornejo Valverde, Fernando

AU - Corral-Rivas, José J.

AU - Crim, Philip M.

AU - Cumming, Jonathan R.

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AU - Gann, George D.

AU - Crowther, Thomas W.

PY - 2023/12/7

Y1 - 2023/12/7

N2 - Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system 1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests 2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced 6 and satellite-derived approaches 2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea 2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

AB - Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system 1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests 2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced 6 and satellite-derived approaches 2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea 2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85176940311&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

DO - 10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

M3 - Article

C2 - 37957399

AN - SCOPUS:85176940311

SN - 0028-0836

VL - 624

SP - 92

EP - 101

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

IS - 7990

ER -

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

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