Identification of modulated whole-brain dynamical models from nonstationary electrophysiological data

Objective. Understanding the mechanisms underlying brain dynamics is a long-held goal in neuroscience. However, these dynamics are both individualized and nonstationary, making modeling challenging. Here, we present a data-driven approach to modeling nonstationary dynamics based on principles of neuromodulation, at the level of individual subjects. Approach. Previously, we developed the mesoscale individualized neural dynamics (MINDy) modeling approach to capture individualized brain dynamics which do not change over time. Here, we extend the MINDy approach by adding a modulatory component which is multiplied by a set of baseline, stationary connectivity weights. We validate this model on both synthetic data and publicly available electroencephalography data in the context of anesthesia, a known modulator of neural dynamics. Main results. We find that our modulated MINDy approach is accurate, individualized, and reliable. Additionally, we find that our models yield biologically interpretable inferences regarding the effects of propofol anesthesia on mesoscale cortical networks, consistent with previous literature on the neuromodulatory effects of propofol. Significance. Ultimately, our data-driven modeling approach is reliable and scalable, and provides insight into mechanisms underlying observed brain dynamics. Our modeling methodology can be used to infer insights about modulation dynamics in the brain in a number of different contexts.