Forecasting and leader performance: Objective cognition in a socio-organizational context

Michael D. Mumford, Logan Steele, Tristan McIntosh, Tyler Mulhearn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

15 Scopus citations


Traditionally, it has been assumed that leaders, like other people, are typically poor at forecasting. In the present effort, we argue that people can sometimes prove effective at forecasting and that effective forecasting is particularly important to performance in leadership roles. Subsequently, evidence bearing on how four key variables, mental models, objectivity, time frame, and case content, influence the effectiveness of leader forecasting is examined along with interventions that might contribute to effective forecasting on the part of leaders. The implications of these observations for understanding leader cognition are discussed.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)359-369
Number of pages11
JournalLeadership Quarterly
Issue number3
StatePublished - 2015


  • Forecasting
  • Leadership
  • Mental models
  • Objectivity
  • Proactive orientation


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