Forecasting and leader performance: Objective cognition in a socio-organizational context

Michael D. Mumford, Logan Steele, Tristan McIntosh, Tyler Mulhearn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

8 Scopus citations

Abstract

Traditionally, it has been assumed that leaders, like other people, are typically poor at forecasting. In the present effort, we argue that people can sometimes prove effective at forecasting and that effective forecasting is particularly important to performance in leadership roles. Subsequently, evidence bearing on how four key variables, mental models, objectivity, time frame, and case content, influence the effectiveness of leader forecasting is examined along with interventions that might contribute to effective forecasting on the part of leaders. The implications of these observations for understanding leader cognition are discussed.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)359-369
Number of pages11
JournalLeadership Quarterly
Volume26
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2015
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • Leadership
  • Mental models
  • Objectivity
  • Proactive orientation

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Forecasting and leader performance: Objective cognition in a socio-organizational context'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this