Estimated health benefits, costs and cost-effectiveness of eliminating industrial trans-fatty acids in Nigeria: cost-effectiveness analysis

Matti Marklund, Leopold N. Aminde, Mary Njeri Wanjau, Boni M. Ale, Adedayo E. Ojo, Clementina E. Okoro, Abimbola Adegboye, Liping Huang, J. Lennert Veerman, Jason H.Y. Wu, Mark D. Huffman, Dike B. Ojji

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Introduction Nigeria is committed to reducing industrial trans-fatty acids (iTFA) from the food supply, but the potential health gains, costs and cost-effectiveness are unknown. Methods The effect on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) burden, costs and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory iTFA limit (≤2% of all fats) for foods in Nigeria were estimated using Markov cohort models. Data on demographics, IHD epidemiology and trans-fatty acid intake were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Avoided IHD events and deaths; health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained; and healthcare, policy implementation and net costs were estimated over 10 years and the population’s lifetime. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios using net costs and HALYs gained (both discounted at 3%) were used to assess cost-effectiveness. Results Over the first 10 years, a mandatory iTFA limit (assumed to eliminate iTFA intake) was estimated to prevent 9996 (95% uncertainty interval: 8870 to 11 118) IHD deaths and 66 569 (58 862 to 74 083) IHD events, and to save US$90 million (78 to 102) in healthcare costs. The corresponding lifetime estimates were 259 934 (228 736 to 290 191), 479 308 (95% UI 420 472 to 538 177) and 518 (450 to 587). Policy implementation costs were estimated at US$17 million (11 to 23) over the first 10 years, and US$26 million USD (19 to 33) over the population’s lifetime. The intervention was estimated to be cost-saving, and findings were robust across several deterministic sensitivity analyses. Conclusion Our findings support mandating a limit of iTFAs as a cost-saving strategy to reduce the IHD burden in Nigeria.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere014294
JournalBMJ Global Health
Volume9
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 17 2024

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Estimated health benefits, costs and cost-effectiveness of eliminating industrial trans-fatty acids in Nigeria: cost-effectiveness analysis'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this