End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics - a dealer's perspective

This paper empirically investigates the Evans and Lyons' [2002. Understanding order flow. International Journal of Finance and Economics 11: 3-23] model of the foreign exchange market from a dealer's perspective. We provide evidence of the suggested information aggregation process using a rich database on a German bank's end-user order flow from 2002 to 2003. Although customer order flow is unambiguously the vehicle incorporating non-public information into exchange rates over time, our empirical analysis does not support the idea that customer order flow is a high-powered source of information easily exploitable for short-run speculation.