Efficient nonmyopic bayesian optimization via one-shot multi-step trees

Bayesian optimization is a sequential decision making framework for optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. Computing a full lookahead policy amounts to solving a highly intractable stochastic dynamic program. Myopic approaches, such as expected improvement, are often adopted in practice, but they ignore the long-term impact of the immediate decision. Existing nonmyopic approaches are mostly heuristic and/or computationally expensive. In this paper, we provide the first efficient implementation of general multi-step lookahead Bayesian optimization, formulated as a sequence of nested optimization problems within a multi-step scenario tree. Instead of solving these problems in a nested way, we equivalently optimize all decision variables in the full tree jointly, in a “one-shot” fashion. Combining this with an efficient method for implementing multi-step Gaussian process “fantasization,” we demonstrate that multi-step expected improvement is computationally tractable and exhibits performance superior to existing methods on a wide range of benchmarks.