Do savings mediate changes in adolescents' future orientation and health-related outcomes? findings from randomized experiment in Uganda

Purpose This present study tests the proposition that an economic strengthening intervention for families caring for AIDS-orphaned adolescents would positively affect adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes through increased asset accumulation (in this case, by increasing family savings). Methods Using longitudinal data from the cluster-randomized experiment, we ran generalized estimating equation models with robust standard errors clustering on individual observations. To examine whether family savings mediate the effect of the intervention on adolescents' future orientation and psychosocial outcomes, analyses were conducted in three steps: (1) testing the effect of intervention on mediator; (2) testing the effect of mediator on outcomes, controlling for the intervention; and (3) testing the significance of mediating effect using Sobel-Goodman method. Asymmetric confidence intervals for mediated effect were obtained through bootstrapping - to address the assumption of normal distribution. Results Results indicate that participation in a matched Child Savings Account (CSA) program improved adolescents' future orientation and psychosocial outcomes by reducing hopelessness, enhancing self-concept, and improving adolescents' confidence about their educational plans. However, the positive intervention effect on adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes was not transmitted through saving. In other words, participation in the matched CSA program improved adolescent future orientation and psychosocial outcomes regardless of its impact on reported savings.