TY - JOUR
T1 - Development of a model to predict breast cancer survival using data from the National Cancer Data Base
AU - Asare, Elliot A.
AU - Liu, Lei
AU - Hess, Kenneth R.
AU - Gordon, Elisa J.
AU - Paruch, Jennifer L.
AU - Palis, Bryan
AU - Dahlke, Allison R.
AU - McCabe, Ryan
AU - Cohen, Mark E.
AU - Winchester, David P.
AU - Bilimoria, Karl Y.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
PY - 2016/2/1
Y1 - 2016/2/1
N2 - Background With the large amounts of data on patient, tumor, and treatment factors available to clinicians, it has become critically important to harness this information to guide clinicians in discussing a patient's prognosis. However, no widely accepted survival calculator is available that uses national data and includes multiple prognostic factors. Our objective was to develop a model for predicting survival among patients diagnosed with breast cancer using the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) to serve as a prototype for the Commission on Cancer's "Cancer Survival Prognostic Calculator." Patients and methods A retrospective cohort of patients diagnosed with breast cancer (2003-2006) in the NCDB was included. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model to predict overall survival was developed. Model discrimination by 10-fold internal cross-validation and calibration was assessed. Results There were 296,284 patients for model development and internal validation. The c-index for the 10-fold cross-validation ranged from 0.779 to 0.788 after inclusion of all available pertinent prognostic factors. A plot of the observed versus predicted 5 year overall survival showed minimal deviation from the reference line. Conclusion This breast cancer survival prognostic model to be used as a prototype for building the Commission on Cancer's "Cancer Survival Prognostic Calculator" will offer patients and clinicians an objective opportunity to estimate personalized long-term survival based on patient demographic characteristics, tumor factors, and treatment delivered.
AB - Background With the large amounts of data on patient, tumor, and treatment factors available to clinicians, it has become critically important to harness this information to guide clinicians in discussing a patient's prognosis. However, no widely accepted survival calculator is available that uses national data and includes multiple prognostic factors. Our objective was to develop a model for predicting survival among patients diagnosed with breast cancer using the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) to serve as a prototype for the Commission on Cancer's "Cancer Survival Prognostic Calculator." Patients and methods A retrospective cohort of patients diagnosed with breast cancer (2003-2006) in the NCDB was included. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model to predict overall survival was developed. Model discrimination by 10-fold internal cross-validation and calibration was assessed. Results There were 296,284 patients for model development and internal validation. The c-index for the 10-fold cross-validation ranged from 0.779 to 0.788 after inclusion of all available pertinent prognostic factors. A plot of the observed versus predicted 5 year overall survival showed minimal deviation from the reference line. Conclusion This breast cancer survival prognostic model to be used as a prototype for building the Commission on Cancer's "Cancer Survival Prognostic Calculator" will offer patients and clinicians an objective opportunity to estimate personalized long-term survival based on patient demographic characteristics, tumor factors, and treatment delivered.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84955200379&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.surg.2015.08.006
DO - 10.1016/j.surg.2015.08.006
M3 - Article
C2 - 26365950
AN - SCOPUS:84955200379
SN - 0039-6060
VL - 159
SP - 495
EP - 502
JO - Surgery (United States)
JF - Surgery (United States)
IS - 2
ER -