Deterioration of Glycemic Control in Youth-Onset Type 2 Diabetes: What Are the Early and Late Predictors?

Objective: We examined predictors of early and late loss of glycemic control in individuals with youth-onset type 2 diabetes, as well as predictors of short-term deterioration in youth from the Treatment Options for type 2 Diabetes in Adolescents and Youth (TODAY) study. Methods: Demographic, physical, and biochemical measures at baseline and 48 months, and change over time, were examined in 584 participants separated into those with loss of glycemic control (sustained HbA1c ≥ 8%) before 48 months or at 48 months or later, and those who remained in control until the end of the study (median 6.8 years). Univariate and multivariate models, and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed. Results: Approximately 45% of youth remained in control at 48 months; of these, 30% subsequently lost glycemic control prior to the end of follow-up. Predictors of early loss of glycemic control included baseline HbA1c, C-peptide index, oral disposition index, proinsulin, and proinsulin to insulin ratio. Predictors of late loss included baseline measures of insulin secretion and change in HbA1c and insulin processing at 48 months. A baseline HbA1c cutoff of ≥ 6.2% was optimally predictive of loss of glycemic control at any time, while an absolute rise in HbA1c >0.5% related to loss of glycemic control within 3 to 6 months. Conclusion: This analysis demonstrates that youth with type 2 diabetes at risk for loss of glycemic control, including impending rapid deterioration, can be identified using available clinical measures, allowing for closer monitoring of at-risk youth, and facilitating the design of research on better therapeutic options.