Complementary benefits of multivariate and hierarchical models for identifying individual differences in cognitive control

Understanding individual differences in cognitive control is a central goal in psychology and neuroscience. Reliably measuring these differences, however, has proven extremely challenging, at least when using standard measures in cognitive neuroscience such as response times or task-based fMRI activity. While prior work has pinpointed the source of the issue—the vast amount of cross-trial variability within these measures—solutions remain elusive. Here, we propose one potential way forward: an analytic framework that combines hierarchical Bayesian modeling with multivariate decoding of trial-level fMRI data. Using this framework and longitudinal data from the Dual Mechanisms of Cognitive Control project, we estimated individuals’ neural responses associated with cognitive control within a color-word Stroop task, then assessed the reliability of these individuals’ responses across a time interval of several months. We show that in many prefrontal and parietal brain regions, test–retest reliability was near maximal, and that only hierarchical models were able to reveal this state of affairs. Further, when compared to traditional univariate contrasts, multivariate decoding enabled individual-level correlations to be estimated with significantly greater precision. We specifically link these improvements in precision to the optimized suppression of cross-trial variability in decoding. Together, these findings not only indicate that cognitive control-related neural responses individuate people in a highly stable manner across time, but also suggest that integrating hierarchical and multivariate models provides a powerful approach for investigating individual differences in cognitive control, one that can effectively address the issue of high-variability measures.