Comparison of multiple PM_2.5 exposure products for estimating health benefits of emission controls over New York State, USA

Ambient exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is one of the top global health concerns. We estimate the PM_2.5-related health benefits of emission reduction over New York State (NYS) from 2002 to 2012 using seven publicly available PM_2.5 products that include information from ground-based observations, remote sensing and chemical transport models. While these PM_2.5 products differ in spatial patterns, they show consistent decreases in PM_2.5 by 28%-37% from 2002 to 2012. We evaluate these products using two sets of independent ground-based observations from the New York City Community Air Quality Survey (NYCCAS) Program for an urban area, and the Saint Regis Mohawk Tribe Air Quality Program for a remote area. Inclusion of satellite remote sensing improves the representativeness of surface PM_2.5 in the remote area. Of the satellite-based products, only the statistical land use regression approach captures some of the spatial variability across New York City measured by NYCCAS. We estimate the PM_2.5-related mortality burden by applying an integrated exposure-response function to the different PM_2.5 products. The multi-product mean PM_2.5-related mortality burden over NYS decreased by 5660 deaths (67%) from 8410 (95% confidence interval (CI): 4570-12 400) deaths in 2002 to 2750 (CI: 700-5790) deaths in 2012. We estimate a 28% uncertainty in the state-level PM_2.5 mortality burden due to the choice of PM_2.5 products, but such uncertainty is much smaller than the uncertainty (130%) associated with the exposure-response function.