Age-period-cohort analysis of secular trends in onset of major depression: Findings in siblings of patients with major affective disorder

Philip W. Lavori, Gerald L. Klerman, Martin B. Keller, Theodore Reich, John Rice, Jean Endicott

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

65 Scopus citations

Abstract

Analyses of data from the NIMH-CRB Collaborative Depression Study on age at onset of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) in 1144 directly interviewed siblings of patients with major affective disorder show a strong secular trend toward increased lifetime risk and earlier onset in successive cohorts of birth since 1930. The proportionate increases in the instantaneous probabilities (hazard) of onset of MDD for each one year difference in year of birth were 5% for brothers and 7% for sisters. Age-period-cohort analysis suggests a powerful period effect may be responsible for this secular trend in rates of MDD, with rates of onset for siblings between 15 and 50 years of age doubling between the 1960s and 1970s. Possible artifacts are investigated.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)23-35
Number of pages13
JournalJournal of Psychiatric Research
Volume21
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 1987
Externally publishedYes

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