Abortion trends in Southern Illinois after the Dobbs vs Jackson Women's Health Organization decision

Background: The Dobbs vs Jackson Women's Health Organization (Dobbs) decision in June 2022 significantly changed the landscape of abortion care in the United States. Characterizing the changes in regional abortion provision is imperative to understanding the impact of Dobbs on patients seeking abortion and the clinics providing care. Objective: To examine changes in gestational duration, 1-way driving distance, and abortion volume pre-Dobbs and post-Dobbs. Study Design: This retrospective cohort study used clinic-level administrative data to examine changes in abortion provision from June 2021 to June 2023 at 2 outpatient abortion clinics in Southern Illinois. We included all induced abortions performed up to 23 weeks and 6 days gestational duration. We compared patient characteristics between pre-Dobbs and post-Dobbs using appropriate bivariate tests. To account for underlying trends over time, we used segmented regression analyses to examine changes in mean gestational duration (weeks) at the time of abortion, mean 1-way driving distance (miles) from patients' home zip code to the clinic, and number of abortions before and after the Dobbs decision. We conducted segmented regressions stratified by 1-way driving distance, race, and Area Deprivation Index national percentile to explore disparities in access after Dobbs. All segmented regressions adjusted for seasonal variation and controlled for autocorrelation. Results: In total, 29,165 abortions occurred during the study period: 11,631 pre-Dobbs and 17,534 post-Dobbs (51% increase). The monthly number of abortions increased by 349.2 (95% confidence interval: 120.7, 557.8) post-Dobbs and remained stable. The mean gestational duration increased from 8.3±3.8 weeks pre-Dobbs to 8.9±4.0 in the 12 months post-Dobbs (P<.001) and the proportion of abortions occurring at 12 weeks or later increased from 14.5% (n=1689) to 18.1% (n=3176) (P<.001). The monthly average gestational duration increased 1.1 weeks (95% confidence interval: 0.6, 1.6) immediately post-Dobbs and subsequently decreased −0.1 weeks (95% confidence interval: −0.2, 0.1) over time. The mean 1-way driving distance pre-Dobbs was 82.87±132.34 miles and increased to 193.95±206.50 post-Dobbs (P<.001). The monthly mean 1-way driving distance increased 108.0 miles (95% confidence interval: 93.2, 122.8) post-Dobbs and then decreased over the remainder of the study period (−6.9 miles, 95% confidence interval: −8.2, 5.5). Conclusion: At 2 abortion clinics in Southern Illinois, the 12-month period post-Dobbs was associated with a substantial increase in abortion volume, a small increase in gestational duration, and patients traveling farther for care compared to pre-Dobbs. These findings highlight the impact on patient care caused by the rapidly changing abortion landscape in the United States.