TY - JOUR
T1 - A validated model for predicting live birth after embryo transfer
AU - Awadalla, Michael S.
AU - Bendikson, Kristin A.
AU - Ho, Jacqueline R.
AU - McGinnis, Lynda K.
AU - Ahmady, Ali
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).
PY - 2021/12
Y1 - 2021/12
N2 - Accurately predicting the probability of live birth and multiple gestations is important for determining a safe number of embryos to transfer after in vitro fertilization. We developed a model that can be fit to individual clinic data for predicting singleton, twin, and total live birth rates after human embryo transfer. The predicted and observed rates of singleton and twin deliveries were compared in a tenfold cross-validation study using data from a single clinic. The model presented accounts for patient age, embryo stage (cleavage or blastocyst), type of transfer cycle (fresh or frozen) and uterine/universal factors. The standardized errors for rates of singleton and twin deliveries were normally distributed and the mean errors were not significantly different from zero (all p > 0.05). The live birth rates per embryo varied from as high as 43% for fresh blastocysts in the 35-year-old age group to as low as 1% for frozen cleavage stage embryos in the 43-year-old age group. This quantitative model or a simplified version can be used for clinics to generate and analyze their own data to guide the number of embryos to transfer to limit the risk of multiple gestations.
AB - Accurately predicting the probability of live birth and multiple gestations is important for determining a safe number of embryos to transfer after in vitro fertilization. We developed a model that can be fit to individual clinic data for predicting singleton, twin, and total live birth rates after human embryo transfer. The predicted and observed rates of singleton and twin deliveries were compared in a tenfold cross-validation study using data from a single clinic. The model presented accounts for patient age, embryo stage (cleavage or blastocyst), type of transfer cycle (fresh or frozen) and uterine/universal factors. The standardized errors for rates of singleton and twin deliveries were normally distributed and the mean errors were not significantly different from zero (all p > 0.05). The live birth rates per embryo varied from as high as 43% for fresh blastocysts in the 35-year-old age group to as low as 1% for frozen cleavage stage embryos in the 43-year-old age group. This quantitative model or a simplified version can be used for clinics to generate and analyze their own data to guide the number of embryos to transfer to limit the risk of multiple gestations.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85106600433&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41598-021-90254-y
DO - 10.1038/s41598-021-90254-y
M3 - Article
C2 - 34031492
AN - SCOPUS:85106600433
SN - 2045-2322
VL - 11
JO - Scientific reports
JF - Scientific reports
IS - 1
M1 - 10800
ER -