TY - JOUR
T1 - A model to determine the likely age of an adolescent's first drink of alcohol
AU - Kuperman, Samuel
AU - Chan, Grace
AU - Kramer, John R.
AU - Wetherill, Leah
AU - Bucholz, Kathleen K.
AU - Dick, Danielle
AU - Hesselbrock, Victor
AU - Porjesz, Bernice
AU - Rangaswamy, Madhavi
AU - Schuckit, Marc
PY - 2013/2
Y1 - 2013/2
N2 - OBJECTIVE: With the use of a new cohort of adolescent subjects, predictors from the Semi-Structured Assessment for the Genetics of Alcoholism (SSAGA) interview and the Achenbach Youth Self Report (YSR) were combined to model age of first drink (AFD). METHODS: Subjects consisted of 820 adolescents (ages 14-17) drawn from the current phase of the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism. Three Cox proportional hazards models were considered. Model 1 contained SSAGA variables equivalent to AFD predictors from our previous study: interview age, family history of alcohol dependence, and number of conduct disorder symptoms. Model 2 incorporated 2 additional SSAGA questions (best friends drink and smoked a cigarette before a reported AFD) plus 8 YSR-derived scale scores. Model 3 was a reduced version of model 2, retaining only significant predictors. RESULTS: Model 2 was a significant improvement over model 1. Model 3 was the best and the most parsimonious of the 3 with respect to likelihood ratio and Wald x2 tests and retained only 5 variables from model 2. Included variables were the following: (1) best friends drink, (2) membership in a high-risk alcohol dependence family, (3) number of conduct disorder symptoms, (4) YSR externalizing score, and (5) YSR social problems score.
AB - OBJECTIVE: With the use of a new cohort of adolescent subjects, predictors from the Semi-Structured Assessment for the Genetics of Alcoholism (SSAGA) interview and the Achenbach Youth Self Report (YSR) were combined to model age of first drink (AFD). METHODS: Subjects consisted of 820 adolescents (ages 14-17) drawn from the current phase of the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism. Three Cox proportional hazards models were considered. Model 1 contained SSAGA variables equivalent to AFD predictors from our previous study: interview age, family history of alcohol dependence, and number of conduct disorder symptoms. Model 2 incorporated 2 additional SSAGA questions (best friends drink and smoked a cigarette before a reported AFD) plus 8 YSR-derived scale scores. Model 3 was a reduced version of model 2, retaining only significant predictors. RESULTS: Model 2 was a significant improvement over model 1. Model 3 was the best and the most parsimonious of the 3 with respect to likelihood ratio and Wald x2 tests and retained only 5 variables from model 2. Included variables were the following: (1) best friends drink, (2) membership in a high-risk alcohol dependence family, (3) number of conduct disorder symptoms, (4) YSR externalizing score, and (5) YSR social problems score.
KW - Age of first use
KW - Alcohol/drug use
KW - Modeling age of first use
KW - Predictor variables
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84873448992&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1542/peds.2012-0880
DO - 10.1542/peds.2012-0880
M3 - Article
C2 - 23296431
AN - SCOPUS:84873448992
SN - 0031-4005
VL - 131
SP - 242
EP - 248
JO - Pediatrics
JF - Pediatrics
IS - 2
ER -