A $15 federal minimum wage is outside historical experience

Ian Fillmore

doi:10.1016/j.rie.2022.03.002

A $15 federal minimum wage is outside historical experience

Ian Fillmore

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Many economists and policymakers implicitly assume that “previous, modest increases in the minimum wage” are informative about the effects of a $15 minimum. Economic theory predicts that the employment effects of the minimum wage should vary with the composition of affected occupations and industries. I find that a $15 minimum would affect a far broader set of occupations and industries than prior increases, calling into question whether we can extrapolate from past experience with the minimum wage. I find that the frontier of historical experience is a federal minimum between $9 and $11.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	84-92
Number of pages	9
Journal	Research in Economics
Volume	76
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2022.03.002
State	Published - Mar 2022

Keywords

Labor demand
Minimum wage

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10.1016/j.rie.2022.03.002

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title = "A \$15 federal minimum wage is outside historical experience",

abstract = "Many economists and policymakers implicitly assume that “previous, modest increases in the minimum wage” are informative about the effects of a \$15 minimum. Economic theory predicts that the employment effects of the minimum wage should vary with the composition of affected occupations and industries. I find that a \$15 minimum would affect a far broader set of occupations and industries than prior increases, calling into question whether we can extrapolate from past experience with the minimum wage. I find that the frontier of historical experience is a federal minimum between \$9 and \$11.",

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AB - Many economists and policymakers implicitly assume that “previous, modest increases in the minimum wage” are informative about the effects of a $15 minimum. Economic theory predicts that the employment effects of the minimum wage should vary with the composition of affected occupations and industries. I find that a $15 minimum would affect a far broader set of occupations and industries than prior increases, calling into question whether we can extrapolate from past experience with the minimum wage. I find that the frontier of historical experience is a federal minimum between $9 and $11.

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A $15 federal minimum wage is outside historical experience

Abstract

Keywords

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